Myanmar junta challenges ASEAN, forging path to consolidate power

Maung Thuta Mizzima. The first 100-day speech by Min Aung Hlaing was more than just a speech explaining government activities. Through this speech, the Myanmar military junta has openly shown its rejection of ASEAN's consensus and is attempting to gain international acceptance for its post-election politics. At the same time, it has further highlighted its continued path to consolidating power through the ongoing implementation of the conscription law, a five-year plan based on military strength, and various forms of armed attacks, repression, and control. An attempt to replace ASEAN's framework Min Aung Hlaing stated that ASEAN's consensus was not adopted with the agreement of all member states and that Myanmar is being discriminated against. ASEAN continues to hold onto the consensus, which includes stopping the violence, holding inclusive dialogue, providing humanitarian assistance, and intervention by the ASEAN Special Envoy, as the main framework for the Myanmar issue. Therefore, the main question between ASEAN and the Myanmar military junta is no longer whether the junta will implement the consensus or not. It has shifted to the level of whether ASEAN will recognize the organizations that emerge from the elections orchestrated by the military. A five-year plan based on military strength Min Aung Hlaing announced a five-year plan to accelerate "nation-building" in the first two years and fully implement it in the following three years. Special elections are also planned for 2027 in constituencies in 102 townships where voting was not possible due to conflict. However, along with this plan, the conscription law will continue to be implemented, and the strength of the military and police will be increased. Therefore, it can be assumed that the junta's "stability" will continue to rely primarily on military strength, pressure, and security mechanisms, rather than on political agreement. The junta itself has admitted that the economy is being affected by the emigration of many young people between the ages of 18 and 34. However, the continued application of the conscription system could further exacerbate the emigration of young people, the loss of skilled labor, and the instability of the labor market. Two parallel political paths The junta's National Unity and Peace Negotiation Committee is holding discussions with some ethnic armed organizations that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). However, these discussions do not include the powerful groups that are primarily attacking the junta on the ground. Therefore, the junta's claim of having discussed with 13 ethnic armed organizations cannot be considered an inclusive peace process. On the other hand, the National Unity Government (NUG), ethnic armed organizations, and revolutionary forces are striving to increase cooperation based on federal democracy. Therefore, two parallel political forms are emerging: the NCA-based path led by the junta, and the federal democratic path led by the revolutionary forces. However, to date, neither path has led to nationwide political dialogue involving all stakeholders. Prioritizing strategic routes over entire territories Air strikes and battles continue to intensify in Myain Township in Magway Region and southern Myawaddy in Karen State. The junta, facing difficulties in ground operations, is increasingly utilizing its air force, heavy artillery, drones, the conscription system, and allied armed groups. The Myawaddy-Waw Lay route is important as it connects to the Thai border, the junta's supply routes, areas controlled by the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and online scamming camps. This situation indicates that the junta is prioritizing not losing economically, resource-wise, and militarily important routes, rather than fully regaining control of the entire country. Megaprojects and major powers Min Aung Hlaing stated that he will prioritize 10 power generation projects, including the Myitsone hydropower project, a nuclear power plant, the Mandalay-Muse railway, and the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway. The Myitsone and Mandalay-Muse railway are linked to China's economic and strategic interests. India is also showing increasing interest in the Kaladan project, the trilateral highway, border security, and rare minerals. For the junta, these projects could be a way to obtain electricity and investment, as well as to gain diplomatic support from China and India. However, as long as the war, currency depreciation, transportation insecurity, and lack of investor confidence continue, megaprojects alone will not be able to remedy the economic downturn. Changing approach to online scams The European Union (EU) has imposed sanctions on seven individuals and three organizations linked to online scamming camps in Southeast Asia. The Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) and the Cambodia-based Prince Holding Group are also included. The significance of this action is that the international community has begun to address online scams not just as financial or cybercrimes, but as a human rights issue involving human trafficking, torture, and forced criminal activity. However, while sanctions and raids on camps increase pressure, they have not yet eliminated the armed protection, trafficked laborers, internet connectivity, money laundering through digital currency, and cross-border transportation networks that enable these operations. Conclusion The Myanmar military junta is attempting to consolidate power domestically by using military strength and security mechanisms, while also seeking international recognition through elections and infrastructure projects. If ASEAN rebuilds normal relations with the junta without tangible de-escalation of violence, release of political prisoners, access for humanitarian aid, and inclusive dialogue, it would be tantamount to supporting the junta's efforts towards political normalization. In the coming period, ASEAN's response, the actual progress on the Myitsone and Mandalay-Muse railway projects, and the EU's sanctions