Indonesia Braces for Prolonged Dry Season Amid Climate Change Concerns

The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is urging vigilance for a prolonged dry season. According to the agency's predictions, this year's dry period is likely to be longer than usual, with a probability reaching 46.5%. This climate change-induced deterioration is feared to increase the risk of natural disasters and diseases. Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Deputy for Climate Information at BMKG, pointed out that the Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.55 degrees Celsius for the first time in 2024. The agency forecasts that from 2021 to 2050, the average temperature across Indonesia will increase by 1.6 degrees Celsius, and from 2071 to 2100, it could rise by up to 3.4 degrees Celsius compared to the 1981-2010 period. Urban areas like Jakarta are experiencing temperature increases 1.6 times faster than the global average, a trend expected to continue. In terms of forest fires, the emergence of hotspots, typically occurring from June to October, is anticipated to be more pronounced this dry season, from July to September. "The dry spell will become longer due to climate change," Sopaheluwakan stated. The recurrence of hotspots similar to those seen in 2019 is possible this year, with BMKG also expressing concern over potential temperature rises in early 2026. Furthermore, BMKG predicts a 98% probability of a moderate El Niño event this year, with a 62% chance of a strong El Niño. This could lead to an earlier onset of the dry season in 50% of Indonesian regions, extending the total dry period by 57%. This prolonged dryness raises concerns not only about water scarcity but also about impacts on agriculture and the increased risk of infectious disease outbreaks.