Thailand Revises 2026 Growth Forecast Upward on Strong June Exports

Thailand's Finance Ministry has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.5% from the previous 1.6%, citing stronger foreign trade, investment and consumption as well as the impact of government stimulus measures, with June exports growing faster than expected. Private investment is forecast to expand 9% this year while private consumption is expected to rise 2.7%, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, told a press briefing. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.4% last year. Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to reach 33 million this year, down from 33.5 million seen earlier, Mr Vinit said. Thailand had a record of nearly 40 million foreign visitors in 2019, before the pandemic. The Finance Ministry now expects exports to grow 12.5% in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 6.2%, supported by stronger demand from major trading partners, he said. Customs-cleared exports rose 20.8% in June from a year earlier, beating a Reuters poll forecast of a 16.85% increase. Exports, a key driver of the Thai economy, rose 17.6% in the first half of 2026, after increasing 12.9% in 2025, the ministry said. The impact of a new 12.5% U.S. tariff on Thai exports should be limited, said Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Commerce Ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office. Electronic products, which account for more than 50% of Thailand's outbound shipments, are exempt and should continue to support export growth, he told a briefing. The Commerce Ministry has maintained its forecast for export growth at 8% this year, he said. The pace of exports may slow in the second half following earlier front-loading, he added. In June, shipments to the United States, Thailand's largest export market, surged 44.3%, while exports to China rose 4.9%, the commerce ministry said. Imports jumped 50.3% in June, exceeding a forecast increase of 37.1%, resulting in a $6.53 billion trade deficit, the Commerce Ministry said, wider than the expected $4.0 billion deficit.