Malaysian PM's Coalition Suffers Significant Defeat in Johor State Election

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition has suffered a significant setback during a state election in Johor, losing ground to its main federal coalition partner, with whom it is set for a possible showdown at the next general election. Barisan Nasional (BN), the incumbent coalition in Johor, an economically important state at the tip of peninsular Malaysia, secured a commanding victory in Saturday’s polls, winning 48 of 56 state assembly seats, up from 40 at the last election in 2022. Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition won the remaining eight seats, down from 12 previously. While the poor result in Johor has no direct bearing on Anwar’s parliamentary majority at the federal level, it could widen the rift between PH and BN ahead of the next general election, which must be held by 2028 but could be called earlier. The two coalitions joined forces to form a government after a close general election in 2022, but were also unlikely partners. Their coalition brought together two parties – Anwar’s People’s Justice Party (PKR) and the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the main component of BN – that had been fierce rivals for years. As Asif Ullah Khan wrote in these pages last week, while the two parties currently need each other to remain in power in Putrajaya, “they are simultaneously competing to become the dominant force of tomorrow.” For now, the rivalry is playing out at the state level in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, which is scheduled to hold an election on August 1. As Khan wrote, “Both coalitions are using these elections to consolidate their political bases, regain lost supporters, and improve their bargaining position ahead of the next general election.” While Pakatan and BN insist their federal partnership can co-exist with rivalries at the state level, there is now a growing instability in the ruling coalition. Anwar said in May ⁠he would consider calling a snap general election if these divisions became too much to manage. According to an analysis published by Channel News Asia (CNA), BN’s decisive victory “was driven by the star power of its de facto chief minister candidate Onn Hafiz Ghazi,” who campaigned energetically across Johor and has since been sworn in for a second term as chief minister. It also helped by the weakness of the pan-Malay Perikatan Nasional (PN) opposition coalition, which is still reeling from the recent defection of the Islamist party PAS. PN lost all 33 seats that it contested in Johor, including the three it previously held. As James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, said in a post on X, the lack of a “credible Malay/Muslim challenger,” coupled with Onn’s strong appeal, made UMNO “virtually unstoppable.” Meanwhile, PH suffered from lower turnout in areas where ethnic minorities, particularly Chinese Malaysians, form the largest bloc of voters. As Chin told CNA, “This suggested that many of the Chinese voters did not come out to vote, and likely they are disillusioned with PH and want to punish DAP.” Chin was referring to the Democratic Action Party, a predominantly Chinese party that is a key component of PH and a long-standing ally of Anwar’s PKR. Similar dynamics were at play in the state election in Sabah in November, when PH also suffered a setback, winning just one of the 20 state assembly seats it contested, down from the eight it held previously. According to Malaysian political analysts, much of this resulted from the flight of urban Chinese voters away from the DAP toward Sabah-based parties. This disillusionment with Anwar and PH has been building for some time but reached a tipping point over the past year due to a string of corruption scandals, including reports of widespread misconduct at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission. These have tarnished Anwar’s anti-corruption credentials and stirred up discontent within the federal coalition, especially among progressive allies who since 2022 have grown frustrated with the slow implementation of promised reforms. In March, DAP announced that it would “evaluate its position” in the governing coalition for the next election, due to its disappointment with the government’s response to the corruption scandals. Then, in May, two prominent former ministers, Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, announced their resignation from Anwar’s party, accusing the Malaysian leader of protecting vested interests and failing to deliver on promised reforms. They subsequently took charge of the Malaysian United Party (or Bersama for short), which took part in the Johor state polls but failed to make any impression. In a post on X yesterday, Latheefa Koya, a prominent Malaysian lawyer, argued that many PH supporters had become disillusioned with the party, which she accused of lying about reforms. “[T]hey break promises & then blame others. It’s blatant & voters are sick of it,” she said. “At least with BN, they know what they are getting; nothing great, but at least not the slippery chameleon talk of PH.” Saturday’s result will no doubt embolden UMNO and BN, which are aiming to shed their reliance on Anwar’s coalition and begin their ascent back to the summit of Malaysian politics. Prior to its shock electoral defeat in 2018, UMNO/BN had ruled Malaysia continuously since independence in 1957. At the last general election in 2022, however, UMNO won just 30 seats in parliament, down from 79 seats in 2018 and 133 seats in 2013. “Hopefully, this win will trigger a blue wave across other states,” BN Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said at a briefing in Johor late on Saturday. For PH, the result is a wake-up call that offers a chance to regroup and reassess its approach toward its ethnic minority supporters, whom many suspect it has come to take for granted. On election night, Anwar congratulated BN on its victory and said that his own party needed to do more to fulfill the promises it had made voters. “Our resolve is clear: all PH candidates, whether they won or lost, are asked to continue serving and voicing the people’s concerns,” he wrote in a Facebook post. The election does not spell the end for Anwar, nor certain defeat for PH at the next general election – but as the two rivals-turned-allies-turned-rivals prepare to join battle in Negeri Sembilan next month, the alarm bells in PH headquarters are now ringing loudly. Subscribe today and join thousands of diplomats, analysts, policy professionals and business readers who rely on The Diplomat for expert Asia-Pacific coverage. Get unlimited access to in-depth analysis you won'