Vietnam Urged to Strengthen Economic Resilience Amid Strong Growth
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2026年7月13日
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Vietnam Urged to Strengthen Economic Resilience Amid Strong Growth

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Vietnam is maintaining strong economic growth, driven by robust exports and GDP growth of 7-8%. However, strengthening economic resilience, including supply chains, digitalization, and workforce development, is crucial for sustained development.

Vietnam is facing the necessity to further strengthen its economic resilience amidst global uncertainties, while maintaining a strong growth trajectory. According to World Bank (WB) analysis, the country's robust economic performance is primarily driven by a strong recovery in exports, which expanded by more than 15% during 2024–2025, and by its ability to sustain strong GDP growth of 7% and 8% in two consecutive years. The strongest first-half industrial growth since 2019 not only underscores the sector's solid recovery but also provides a firm foundation for Vietnam to sustain robust economic growth throughout 2026. With manufacturing continuing to lead, supported by improving demand, employment, and production capacity, industry is expected to remain a key pillar of economic expansion. The elevation of Vietnam–EU relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership in early 2026 is expected to provide fresh momentum for cooperation in trade, investment, digital transformation, the green transition, energy, climate action, and supply chain resilience. Campaigns to stimulate domestic consumption, boost retail sales, support economic growth, and promote Vietnamese brands are also anticipated. However, Vietnam faces the challenge not simply of adopting new technologies but of ensuring that its supply chains are sustainable and capable of generating long-term value. Investors globally are increasingly choosing locations based not only on costs and logistics but also on renewable energy, carbon performance, circular economy solutions, and ESG standards. To meet these international demands, it is imperative for Vietnam to continue improving its investment climate, upgrading logistics and energy infrastructure, accelerating digital transformation, and developing a highly skilled workforce that meets the requirements of emerging technology sectors. Strengthening economic resilience goes beyond simply maintaining growth. For instance, Vietnam was upgraded to a higher income category by the WB Group, moving from the lower-middle-income group where it had remained for 17 years. This upgrade, one of only six among 218 economies assessed, marks a notable milestone. However, to solidify this achievement, Vietnam must continue to address its structural economic challenges and meet the expectations of the global community. In other economic developments, the current trading band for the Vietnamese Dong (VND) against the US Dollar (USD) is set at +/- 5%, with the ceiling rate for commercial banks at 26,481 VND/USD and the floor rate at 23,959 VND/USD. A recent report by BIDV Securities (BSC) highlighted that infrastructure projects in Vietnam span residential and urban developments, airports, expressways, high-speed rail, industrial facilities, and other strategic infrastructure. The advisory board will support research, provide policy advice, and recommend strategic directions for the development of the Vietnam Institute for Financial and Economic Research (VIFC)-HCMC Executive Board. Hanoi aims to maintain annual gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth of 11% during 2026–2035 and 2036–2045, before easing to 5% during 2046–2065 and 4.5% during 2066–2085. The Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDBank) has successfully raised 721 million USD in an international syndicated loan from international financial institutions in the form of a Social Loan. Globally, investors are increasingly choosing locations based not only on costs and logistics, but also on renewable energy, carbon performance, circular economy solutions, and ESG standards. Vietnamese Ambassador to Brazil Bui Van Nghi informed that two-way trade reached 4.22 billion USD in the first six months of 2026, up 16.8% year-on-year. Brazil's exports to Vietnam exceeded 2 billion USD, rising 16.6%, while its imports from Vietnam totalled about 2.11 billion USD, an increase of 17%. The restored Kunming–Nha Trang route is expected to cater to growing travel demand and facilitate tourism, trade, and cultural exchanges between Vietnam and China. Among the 218 economies assessed this year, Vietnam was one of only six to be upgraded to a higher income category by the WB Group. The move marks a notable milestone after 17 years in the lower-middle-income group, where Vietnam had remained since 2009. For Vietnam, the challenge is not simply adopting new technologies but ensuring that supply chains are sustainable and capable of generating long-term value. The company sold 172,299 motorcycles in June, up 4.7% from the same month last year, highlighting steady consumer demand even as the market gradually shifts towards greener transport options. For the first six months of 2026, motorcycle sales reached 515,743 units, up 0.6% year-on-year. Developed under a strategic cooperation agreement between the Vietnamese and Japanese governments, the nearly 1,000-hectare industrial park is expected to become the city's first eco-industrial park under the country's new regulatory framework. A key target is that by 2030, all concentrated agricultural, forestry, and fisheries production areas will have access to essential services, including product traceability, quarantine, testing, quality certification, processing, and market development. The move reflects growing international demand for stricter food safety, quality, and traceability standards, which have become increasingly important for agricultural exports. The magazine said the VF 2 retails at 188 million VND (7,200 USD) with the battery included, making it one of the most affordable electric cars in the Vietnamese market. Vietnam's young population, dynamic market, and big growth potential are a perfect fit for the strengths that Korean micro-businesses bring in K-brands, technology, and service expertise, said KFME President Song Chi Young. It marked the first time an automotive brand in Vietnam has exceeded 100,000 vehicle deliveries in the first half. With auto loan interest rates remaining competitive, stable vehicle supply, and an increasingly diverse product range, Vietnam's automotive market is expected to maintain its growth momentum through the remainder of 2026. SUVs, MPVs, and hybrid vehicles are likely to remain the main drivers of overall market sales. To convert these opportunities into growth, it is a must for Vietnam to continue improving its investment climate, upgrading logistics and energy infrastructure, accelerating digital transformation, and developing a highly skilled workforce that meets the requirements of emerging technology sectors, an expert has said. Vice Chairman of the provincial People's Committee Nguyen Huu Que said ESG is no longer a communications message or a cost burden, but an essential requirement for accessing global capital. Gia Lai has chosen ESG as a pillar for building new competitive advantages and achieving sustainable development. Copyright, VietnamPlus, Vietnam News Agency (VNA) Editor-in-chief, Mr. Tran Tien Duan.

多角的分析

経済的影響

ベトナム経済は、輸出主導の成長と堅調なGDP成長率を維持しているが、これは世界経済の変動に対する脆弱性を内包している。特に、製造業への依存度が高いため、グローバルなサプライチェーンの混乱や主要市場の需要変動が直接的な影響を与えうる。経済の強靭化という課題は、単に成長率を維持するだけでなく、国内産業の多様化、付加価値の高い生産へのシフト、そして内需のさらなる拡大を通じて、外部ショックへの耐性を高めることを意味する。例えば、グリーン移行やデジタル変革への投資は、新たな成長エンジンとなる可能性を秘めているが、同時にインフラ整備や人材育成といった構造的な課題への取り組みが急務である。

投資家心理

ベトナムは、高所得国への移行というマイルストーンを達成したが、投資家はESG基準や持続可能性といった新たな投資判断基準を重視するようになっている。これは、従来のコストや物流に加え、再生可能エネルギーの利用や炭素排出量の削減といった要素が、直接的な投資決定に影響を与えることを示唆している。ベトナムがこれらの国際的な期待に応え、投資環境を継続的に改善できるかどうかが、今後の資本流入を左右するだろう。特に、インフラ開発、デジタル変革、そしてグリーン技術分野への投資機会は、長期的な視点を持つ投資家にとって魅力的であると同時に、これらの分野における規制の明確化や実行能力が問われる。

社会的影響

ベトナム経済の成長は、国民生活にも恩恵をもたらしているが、その恩恵の分配や持続可能性は社会的な課題となっている。例えば、経済成長の恩恵が都市部と地方部で不均等に分配されている可能性があり、また、若年層のスキルアップや、環境問題への意識の高まりといった社会的な変化に対応する必要がある。特に、製造業の成長は雇用機会を創出する一方で、労働条件や環境への配慮が求められる。また、ベトナム・EU間の関係強化は、貿易や投資の拡大を通じて新たな雇用を生み出す可能性があるが、同時に、労働者の権利保護や環境基準の遵守といった側面も重要になる。地域社会としては、例えば、工業団地の開発が周辺地域に与える環境負荷や、住民の生活への影響などが懸念される。

市民の声

ベトナム市民は、経済成長の恩恵を実感する一方で、将来への不安も抱えている。輸出の好調やGDP成長率は、雇用機会の増加や所得向上に繋がるが、グローバルなサプライチェーンの変動や、インフレ、そして環境問題は、市民の日常生活に直接的な影響を与える可能性がある。例えば、ベトナム・EU間の関係強化は、新たなビジネスチャンスを生み出す一方で、国際的な基準への適応が求められる。また、国内消費の刺激策は、小売業の活性化に繋がるが、物価の上昇や、地元製品への意識向上といった側面も重要である。地方の住民にとっては、インフラ整備の遅れや、都市部との格差が依然として課題となる可能性がある。

背景・歴史的文脈

ベトナム経済の現在の成長軌道は、1986年に開始されたドイモイ(刷新)政策以来の構造改革の成果である。一党体制下で、市場経済原理を導入し、外国からの直接投資を積極的に誘致してきた結果、近年は目覚ましい経済成長を遂げている。特に、製造業はベトナムの輸出を牽引し、グローバルサプライチェーンにおける重要な一翼を担うようになった。しかし、この成長は、中国への経済的依存、環境問題、そして所得格差といった課題も同時に生み出している。近年、ベトナムは、中国一辺倒のリスクを軽減するため、米国やEU、日本などとの外交・経済関係を多角化しており、これが経済の強靭化に寄与している。

原文ソース

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