NGO Blood Money accuses India of ‘blood-stained diplomacy’ after Min Aung Hlaing visit

Related articles

• Chinese Pressure, Min Aung Hlaing’s India Visit, and the Balancing Act (Opinion)

  China, which shares a border of over 1300 miles with Myanmar, is an indispensable neighbor for the coup military junta, which is masquerading as a caretaker government. Furthermore, China is the largest investor and firmly holds the second position among the 53 countries investing in Myanmar. However, the main challenge for the current Naypyidaw military regime is not the absence of China, but its complete dependence on China alone, and the caretaker government is striving in every way to reduce its pressure. Therefore, the choice of India as the first foreign destination for military leader Min Aung Hlaing after taking office as the caretaker president carries deeper strategic implications than mere diplomatic engagement. The caretaker president's move has raised questions as to whether it signifies a shift in Myanmar's foreign policy direction or an attempt to expand its options. China's Shadow Following the 2021 coup, the Myanmar military regime has faced severe sanctions and diplomatic isolation from Western countries. In this situation, China and Russia have become Naypyidaw's main external partners, and China's importance is no longer limited to the economic sphere. Through the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, oil and gas pipelines, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) project, and border trade, China's interests are deeply entrenched within Myanmar. Moreover, China's influence in the conflicts in northern Myanmar and border security issues has reached a level that Naypyidaw cannot ignore. "China is an indispensable partner for Myanmar, as well as a neighboring country that tends to exert pressure by exploiting internal instability," pointed out Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a political researcher. "I mainly support the statement that we need China but are also concerned about it. This is a vigilance that not only China but any country must have when approaching based on national interests," said Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe. Seeking an Exit to Save Face Min Aung Hlaing's visit to India came at a timely moment and is also a diplomatic exit attempt to gradually break free from the isolation it has faced internationally since 2021. The caretaker president is trying to enhance regional diplomatic relations and hopes to create an international lifeline for themselves. In fact, the military leader, who has transformed into the caretaker president, had made arrangements to visit China in May before this trip, but it was canceled due to Beijing's refusal to accept a high-level reception. Subsequently, he made desperate efforts through diplomatic contacts to visit Russia, but without success, and finally seized the invitation from India as a diplomatic lifeline. Why is India Interested? In the geopolitical game, it is not only the military regime that has desires; New Delhi also has its own firm national interests. Myanmar is a strategically crucial country in India's "Look East" and "Neighborhood First" policies. Myanmar is the only ASEAN member state bordering India, serving as a gateway to Southeast Asia, a trade route, and crucial for the security of India's northeastern states. Furthermore, competing with the United States and China, India is interested in Myanmar's rare mineral reserves and sees it as an opportunity to reduce China's influence over Myanmar. "India does not want the military to get close to China, nor does it want China to exert unchecked influence over Myanmar. That is why this balance of power is being sought," said R. Lakher, an observer of India-Myanmar affairs. Concluding Min Aung Hlaing's visit to India as the caretaker president as a "complete departure from China" is too simplistic compared to real geopolitics. In other words, the coup leader Min Aung Hlaing is not choosing India as a substitute for China, but is trying to expand relations with both powerful countries and play them off against each other. Observers also note that just as India wants to reduce China's influence, Naypyidaw also wants to reduce its dependence on China alone. "Today, Myanmar has become a playground for major powers, and there is still an opportunity to become a player. There are three possible scenarios in the next 3 to 5 years," said Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe. The three possible scenarios suggested by Dr. Sai Kyi Zin Soe are the prolonged continuation of agreements without conclusion due to Chinese arrangements, the success of revolutionary resistance, and international involvement. The Military Regime's Real Challenge The caretaker president's visit to India is a diplomatically significant event, but it is neither a break with China nor a complete shift towards India. The military regime is merely trying to create more options and a balancing act for itself between Beijing and New Delhi. Therefore, what will ultimately determine Myanmar's future and the fate of the military regime is not its relationship with China and India, but how it manages and resolves the internal civil war, the offensives of resistance forces, and the domestic political deadlock on the ground. That is the actual truth.

• Myanmar's Geopolitical Shift and Min Aung Hlaing's India Visit

  Ayeyarwaddy Times June 5 It has been five years since the military coup and the ensuing civil war in Myanmar. However, a new reality is now emerging in the Asian region. This is the fact that no matter how the internatio