Solar panel prices nearly double amid El Nino forecast, shortages worsen

As announcements emerge about the impending occurrence of a Super El Nino, solar panel prices have nearly doubled, with prices fluctuating daily, even differing between morning and afternoon rates on some days, according to sources within the solar market. It is understood that the purchase of solar panels in Myanmar has increased due to announcements from meteorological agencies predicting a global Super El Nino phenomenon, coupled with the prospect of rotational power outages. "It can be said that prices are currently breaking records. Previously, in 2022-2023, Jinko 400W panels were around 300,000 kyats or slightly more. Now, popular 620W Jinko panels are fetching over 800,000 kyats, even up to 900,000 kyats per piece," stated a solar sales shop. According to market sources, while a single Jinko solar panel, the most popular brand in Myanmar, cost only 550,000 kyats in early August last year, it has now risen to nearly 900,000 kyats. Battery prices have also surged, with a 7.2 million kyat battery increasing to 9.2 million kyats within two days. "Today, the solar industry has become one of fear-driven buying and selling. The reason I say it's an industry of fear-driven buying and selling is because prices differ in the morning and evening, and differ from day to day. Prices are changing in various ways. For us sellers, if we make a profit of 200,000 kyats from selling one battery, we have to invest another 300,000 kyats when we buy it back. This is what's happening. If it costs 300,000 kyats to invest in one battery, then for ten batteries, it's a 3 million kyat investment. Are we making a profit? Yes, we are. But if you ask us to show our profit, we can't, and we have to keep investing and buying more. So, we sellers are also becoming fearful. Consumers, too, are becoming fearful of further price increases as prices rise day by day. They are buying out of fear, thinking, 'I'll buy it now while I can,'" said a solar installation and sales provider on the social media platform TikTok. Sources in the solar market indicate that solar products are currently nearing depletion, with prices only on the rise. Consequently, quotations can only be guaranteed for one day, requiring recalculations for subsequent days. "Due to significant price fluctuations, we can only guarantee the quoted prices for one day. Please be advised that if you inquire again the following day, we will need to recalculate the updated price," NEC Solar announced on social media. It is reported that solar product prices are currently at record highs, and there are also shortages of popular brands in the market. As popular branded solar products are becoming scarce, sellers are warning consumers to be cautious, as lower-quality brands are beginning to occupy market space. "In the market, products like inverters, batteries, and power stations that are of good quality, have warranties, are reliable, have readily available spare parts, and good service are becoming scarce, with some completely sold out. Currently, we are seeing an abundance of low-quality items, those with warranties but no accountability, products not used in any country, counterfeit brands, brands unsearchable on Google, old and discarded items that haven't sold for years, and brands that never gained traction. We urge consumers to consider these points and purchase with caution," wrote Power Station Myanmar on social media. Market insiders suggest that the scarcity of certain brands and the rising prices in the solar market may be attributed to the announcement of rotational power supply plans due to the El Nino phenomenon, leading to a rush to buy solar panels for electricity. Delays in importing solar products, increased prices from original Chinese factories, and recent surges in the Chinese Yuan exchange rate could also be contributing factors. "There's a mismatch between supply and demand. We can't get the products we want. In the market, sellers are in a situation where they are losing money, so they are holding back sales," said a solar seller. Currently, the Jinko brand is the most expensive in the solar market, ranging from over 800,000 to 900,000 kyats per piece, with other brands also experiencing significant price increases, according to market sources.