Northern Vietnam Faces Heatwave After Month of Rain; El Niño's Impact Questioned

Northern Vietnam is expected to experience a widespread heatwave starting around August 9th, following nearly a month of heavy rainfall. This hot spell is forecast to last until mid-August. According to forecasters from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, rainfall will significantly decrease from August 8th, with some areas seeing temperatures exceed 35 degrees Celsius. From August 9th, a broad heatwave is anticipated in the northeastern provinces, with daily highs ranging from 35-37 degrees Celsius, and locally above 37 degrees. By August 10th, the heatwave is expected to expand to northwestern regions and extend down to the central provinces, with daily highs of 35-36 degrees Celsius, and locally above 36 degrees. Forecasters advise that the actual perceived temperature may be 1-3 degrees Celsius higher than the forecast and recommend limiting outdoor activities during the hottest parts of the day when the heat is most intense. This heatwave is projected to persist until August 15th. Before the heatwave, scattered thunderstorms are expected in the northwestern region tonight. Specifically, from Thanh Hoa to northern Quang Tri, moderate to heavy rain with thunderstorms is forecast, with rainfall amounts ranging from 20-40mm, and locally over 90mm. Other areas in the central region will experience only isolated thunderstorms. Due to heavy rain on the afternoon of August 7th, water levels on the Thao River (Red River) at Yen Bai station are rising. As of 3 PM today, the water level was 0.88 meters below Alert Level 1. The water level at Yen Bai is forecast to continue rising and remain above Alert Level 1 from tonight until August 8th. Water levels on smaller rivers in Lao Cai province are fluctuating between Alert Level 1 and Alert Level 2, with some exceeding Alert Level 2. There is a high risk of flash floods and landslides in the mountainous and midland areas, and flooding in low-lying areas along the Red River basin in Lao Cai. Since late June, northern Vietnam has experienced continuous heavy rainfall, leading to cooler weather for over a month. The most recent heatwave in the northern region occurred from July 12th to 14th. Regarding the reason for the lack of heat and abundant rain in the north during summer despite the presence of El Niño, Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, explained that El Niño is a large-scale climate signal with seasonal impacts and a delay of about 2-3 months, meaning its effects are not immediate or uniform across all regions. He stated that the heavy rains in July were primarily caused by low-pressure troughs, weakened tropical storm or depression circulations, and upper-air disturbances, rather than being a clear sign of El Niño. The impact of El Niño is expected to become more apparent on a seasonal scale in the coming period. Tropical depressions are unlikely to intensify into typhoons and make landfall in Vietnam. Source: The Saigon Times