PHL Pork Output Seen Rising 4.4% in 2027, Beef Steady

PHILIPPINE PORK production is projected to increase 4.4% to 1.06 million metric tons (MMT) in 2027, while beef production is expected to remain little changed from its 2026 estimate of 174,000 MT, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. In a report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila said pork production in 2027 is expected to increase from its revised 2026 estimate of 1.02 MMT. The USDA attributed the boost to government-led swine repopulation efforts, sustained biosecurity measures, and improved swine genetics and animal nutrition. However, gains could be partially offset by the potential impact of a strong El Niño anticipated by the end of 2026. “The swine industry could face direct impacts on swine health and productivity, as well as indirect impacts due to disruptions to crops and feed supply chain, particularly if appropriate preparations and mitigating measures are not implemented,” the USDA said. Pork consumption is also projected to expand 6.4% in 2027 to 1.9 MMT from the 1.8 MMT estimated this year, citing population growth and easing inflation. Pork imports in 2027 are forecast to increase 7.1% to 835,000 MT from the 780,000 MT estimated this year, with Brazil expected to remain the Philippines’ top supplier of pork due to competitive pricing. Brazil has also signed a regionalization agreement that will avert blanket bans on pork shipments from Brazil in the event of future African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks. Instead, any such bans will be confined to pork from specific regions where outbreaks have been reported, thereby minimizing the likelihood of bigger shipment disruptions. “Pork imports are forecast to trend upward as population growth continues to drive demand, while domestic pork production remains below pre-ASF levels,” the USDA said. The USDA projected beef and carabeef production in the Philippines to remain unchanged in 2027 due to low awareness and limited access to available technologies among smallholder farmers, such as improved genetics, appropriate nutrition, and improved fattening practices. Beef consumption is also projected to increase 1.5% to 469,000 MT in 2025, driven by population and economic growth as well as increasing demand driven by restaurant sales. Beef imports for 2027 are forecast to jump 2.4% to 295,000 MT, with Brazil and India expected to dominate the Philippine beef trade. “This growth is due to rising demand from households, food processors, and the food service sector amid slow growth in domestic beef production,” the USDA said. — Marron Joshua F. Mendoza