
Philippines Navigates Political Turmoil Amid Economic Stability Concerns
A large rally supporting a senator facing plunder charges has emerged in the Philippines, raising concerns about political destabilization amidst a volatile global economy and domestic economic challenges. This highlights long-standing issues regarding resource development and economic self-reliance.
I woke up Tuesday morning to news of a big rally to support a senator facing plunder charges, and who supports Vice President Sara Duterte. While the rally appeared peaceful enough, it creates another destabilizing event at a time when the global economy is still unstable and awaiting a resolution to the four-month old Middle East war that unfortunately US President Trump appears to be flip-flopping on, while our current government and economic officials try to keep our economy on track. In my Monday column, I expressed hope that the private sector and economic officials were finally trying to sync their actions and keep the economy humming. I actually failed to include in my column at the start of this week, my positive observation that some local government and DPWH officials are earnestly working on addressing the decades-old flooding problem along Araneta Avenue that regularly gets submerged in more than six feet of dirty, garbage-laden creek water that makes that area impassable during heavy rain. I noticed that several massive flood-control tunnel projects had finally been completed, and further along down near the intersection of Del Monte Ave, similar massive groundwork was also being done. It seemed to validate this current administration’s determination to rectify the damage inflicted by flood control corruption projects that started all the political destabilization. I had hoped that we could at least stay on an even keel while geopolitical events continue to roil in the Middle East, in Eastern Europe between Ukraine and Russia, in Sub-Saharan Africa and even in our own backyard of Southeast Asia in Myanmar. I was even thankful that because we are an island nation we would, at least, not be easily invaded and involved in localized conflicts in our region. I guess those behind the surprise gathering early Tuesday morning along EDSA need to capitalize on the global turmoil to further their own local agenda and effect another political upheaval after the Senate merry-go-round just a couple of weeks ago. To hell with economic stability, let the entire country suffer instead. Just focus on strife. Sanay naman mga Filipino dyan. We are so used to this up and down, one step forward, two steps backward. Scare away foreign investors by making it appear that the current government is unstable. Just this Monday, at the Monday Circle breakfast forum at the Westin Manila Hotel in Ortigas, our topic was focused on national security. The discussion included national security and the foreign players involved, and the more insidious economic effect that has already crippled our economic growth. Our speakers were Prof. Joshua Espeña, a tenured lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at PUP. He holds a PhD in Political Science and was a scholar at UP Diliman. He has done some work with the AFP’s Office for Strategic Studies. Our other guest speaker was Regine Cabato, a freelance journalist who has done work with the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, and has worked for The Washington Post and has likewise done some work for the BBC and American networks ABC and CBS. My takeaway from the discussion with both Professor Espeña and Regine was simply an affirmation that the Philippines is an unfortunate pawn in the race to gain economic dominance and control vital mineral resources that over the years we have been either clueless or brainwashed into thinking should not be disturbed to preserve our pristine environment, while being carefully conditioned to rely on foreign imports. Perhaps in the past, when the technology was not yet available and extraction and production methods were crude and harmful both to humans and the environment, it seemed logical to just import better quality coal from our neighbor Indonesia, while labeling our wet coal from Semirara Island as environmentally harmful. It was okay to mine our gold, silver, nickel and copper resources, but local and foreign environmentalists warned us about the danger of putting up processing plants to refine our nickel and copper minerals. Just sell it to foreign refineries, to the Indonesians and Chinese, pretty much like what the United States was doing, thankful that the Chinese were willing to sacrifice the health of some of their people to refine the vital minerals, and actually build what is now their powerhouse status in cornering the rare earth minerals, which apparently is extracted from unprocessed nickel of which we are the second biggest producer. We likewise opted not to develop and fully harness our then plentiful geothermal resources and instead relied on powering our industries with the cheap crude oil from the Middle East. It is during my lifetime that I personally saw and even wrote about these events, always hearing about the need to protect our environment and let the dirty refining work be done by other countries. I was part of that generation that was “brainwashed” into believing that American-made goods were of better quality, that Philippine-made goods were inferior and that we really don’t need to produce our own since we could always rely on the US-made products, and eventually on Japanese products and then on the cheaper Taiwan-made products, and eventually on the plentiful and cheap China-made goods, but never on “made in the Philippines” products. It turns out, as our Monday Circle speakers made me realize, even then the US “influencers” were already doing their work on us, perhaps not in the same way that the current and future generation is being convinced. Nowadays, the Chinese influencers are likewise using even more sophisticated ways to get us to rely on them while we tragically still fail to rely and protect our own resources instead of just selling our precious marine, agriculture and mineral resources to countries that are happy to keep us dependent on them. Source: Philstar Business
多角的分析
フィリピン経済は、世界的なインフレ圧力、地政学的な不確実性、そして国内の政治的動向による影響を受けやすい状況にある。今回の政治的集会は、外国投資家に対して国の安定性に対する懸念を抱かせ、直接投資(FDI)の流入を鈍化させる可能性がある。長年にわたる資源開発の遅れと輸入依存体質は、経済の脆弱性をさらに露呈しており、経済成長の持続可能性に影を落としている。
外国投資家にとって、フィリピンの政治的安定性は依然として重要な懸念事項である。今回の集会は、過去の政権交代期に見られたような政治的混乱への回帰を想起させ、投資リスクを高める要因となり得る。特に、資源開発やインフラ分野への投資を検討している投資家は、政策の一貫性と実行能力を慎重に見極める必要がある。経済官僚の安定化努力にもかかわらず、政治的リスクが顕在化すると、資本逃避のリスクも高まる。
フィリピン国民は、政治的混乱と経済的困難が繰り返される状況に慣れてしまっているという筆者の指摘は、社会の疲弊を示唆している。アラネタ通りの洪水対策のような具体的な進展は地域住民にとって朗報だが、政治的な不安定さは、生活必需品の価格高騰や雇用機会の減少といった形で、より広範な国民生活に影響を及ぼす可能性がある。自国資源の活用が進まない現状は、将来世代の経済的自立への不安にもつながる。
「Sanay naman mga Filipino dyan. We are so used to this up and down, one step forward, two steps backward.」という筆者の言葉は、フィリピン市民の諦めや無力感を表している。政治的な騒動が起きるたびに、生活必需品の価格が上昇したり、仕事が不安定になったりする経験は、多くの国民にとって日常茶飯事となっている。アラネタ通りの洪水対策のような具体的な改善は歓迎されるものの、根本的な政治的安定がなければ、国民の生活は常に不安定な状況に置かれ続ける。
背景・歴史的文脈
フィリピンの政治的混乱と資源開発の遅れは、長年の構造的問題に根差している。植民地時代からの外国依存体質、資源開発における汚職、そして政治家間の権力闘争が、経済的自立を妨げてきた。特に、環境保護を名目にしながらも、実際には外国への資源売却に依存する現状は、1980年代以降の経済政策の帰結とも言える。現政権はインフラ整備や洪水対策に注力しているが、政治的安定性の欠如は、これらの取り組みの効果を限定的にする可能性がある。また、中国などの影響力拡大は、フィリピンの資源戦略と地政学的な立ち位置に複雑な影響を与えている。
原文ソース
Philstar Business