Maritime Orders Collide at Jakarta Conference on South China Sea Disputes

A Track 1.5 conference in Jakarta on July 13-14, commemorating the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling, has underscored a significant clash between competing visions of maritime order in the region. The event, held outside the Philippines for the first time, was intended to signal regional solidarity against China's assertive actions. However, reports indicate that the Chinese government initially attempted to pressure the organizers to cancel the conference. When this failed, Beijing reportedly shifted tactics to undermine the event's legitimacy. This pressure campaign resulted in the withdrawal of Indonesian government officials who were initially slated to speak, and the quiet disappearance of government backing from the event's program. The commemoration proceeded, albeit in a modified form. At the conference, participants from China and Southeast Asian nations spoke of "peace and stability," but with divergent meanings. Chinese participants framed order in terms of stability, while Philippine and Indonesian speakers emphasized equality under a regime of rules. This divergence represents the region's primary fault line regarding maritime order. Two competing visions of order were evident: the "legalist" approach, which posits that entitlements flow from law and rules bind all states, and the "relationalist" approach, which prioritizes stability, hierarchy, and negotiated consensus, with law as one bargaining tool among many. Managing relations with China, the region's dominant power, takes precedence in the latter. The Philippines champions the legalist camp, viewing the arbitral award as a blueprint for regional order. In contrast, Indonesia exhibits a hybrid posture: legalist in principle but relational in practice, seeking to manage relations with major powers like China quietly. This dynamic is reflected across Southeast Asia, where many states adhere to the substance of the ruling while avoiding direct citation to preserve relationships with China. The Jakarta conference served as a stark illustration of these competing interests and the challenges of enforcing international law in the face of geopolitical realities.