No imminent water crisis in Metro Manila despite El Niño, UP study suggests

MANILA, Philippines — No water crisis is expected amid the threat of El Niño even as the water level of Angat Dam remains below its normal high level, a study conducted by the University of the Philippines (UP) Resilience Institute-Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards or RI-NOAH showed. “Current evidence does not indicate an imminent domestic water supply crisis for Metro Manila, although irrigation and hydroelectric power generation may experience greater operational constraints, if dry conditions persist,” the report of UP RI-NOAH stated, which was shared by UP Resilience Institute executive director Mahar Lagmay. As of 8 a.m. yesterday, Angat’s water level was at 158.13 meters, or 51.87 meters below its normal high water level of 210 meters. Among the key findings of the UP RI-NOAH is that the Angat Reservoir reached one of its lowest dry-season water levels during 2025-2026, which is comparable to the 2018-2019 drought. The report noted that the La Mesa Reservoir remained within its historical operating range, unlike during the 2018-2019 Metro Manila water supply crisis. “UP RI-NOAH has been monitoring the water levels of Angat Dam and La Mesa Dam for about 10 years, providing a sufficient record to prepare a report presenting our assessment of the current El Niño and its likely impacts on Metro Manila’s domestic water supply,” Lagmay said on social media. The study said that the strongest El Niño, which was in 2015-2016, did not produce the most severe water supply impacts, indicating that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO intensity alone is not a reliable predictor of municipal water security. “For now, Metro Manila’s domestic supply appears stable. Persistently low storage at Angat could nevertheless narrow the room available for other uses, particularly irrigation in Central Luzon and hydropower generation, if rainfall remains below normal. This assessment falls near the upcoming seasonal turn from the dry months to the southwest monsoon,” the UP RI-NOAH report said. It noted that monitoring remains important because a strong El Niño later this year could limit recharge and reduce the water carried into the next dry season.