Growing Discontent in Pakistan-Administered Jammu and Kashmir: Questions Over Governance and Representation
Politics
2026年7月6日
5
The Diplomat Indonesia

Growing Discontent in Pakistan-Administered Jammu and Kashmir: Questions Over Governance and Representation

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Protests are escalating in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir (PaJK) over soaring electricity prices, inflation, and governance issues. The ban on the civil society coalition JAAC under the Anti-Terrorism Act has amplified discontent, with authorities' hardline stance exacerbating the situation. Deeper structural, political, and economic issues, beyond everyday governance concerns, are fueling the unrest.

In June this year, violent clashes erupted between police and local protestors in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir (PaJK), resulting in death and injuries to scores of people. The immediate trigger for the protests was the ban on the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), a grassroots civil society coalition, under the Anti-Terrorism Act. The JAAC had emerged in 2023 to protest soaring electricity bills, wheat prices, and governance issues. Islamabad’s approach to the festering grievances — while it did meet some demands, larger issues have been ignored — together with its use of force against protesters, has resulted in the periodic eruption of mass protests. Political analyst and author of “Across the LoC: Inside Pakistan-Administered Jammu and Kashmir” Luv Puri spoke to The Diplomat’s South Asia editor Sudha Ramachandran about what is driving this little-known but important and complex conflict on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border between the two parts of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Puri said, “The protest demands combine everyday governance concerns with deeper structural, political, and economic issues.” Unlike disquiet on the Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir, which manifested in an armed insurgency against the Indian state, public anger in PaJK has been more muted. However, Islamabad cannot be complacent. As Puri noted, “while many participants state that their demands are not directed against Pakistan itself, they also express frustration over contradictions within Pakistan’s Kashmir policy and the handling of dissent.” What triggered the recent violence in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir (PaJK)? The recent unrest in PaJK – which has reportedly claimed at least 20 lives this year according to official figures, following at least 17 deaths during last year’s protests – appears less an isolated episode than the continuation of a deeper political and social process that has become increasingly visible over the past two years. Rather than a sudden eruption of discontent, the recurring protests point to accumulating grievances over governance, representation, and the relationship between the region and Pakistan’s federal establishment. Focusing only on immediate triggers risks overlooking deeper frustrations shaped by decades of political manipulation, constrained political expression and perceptions of political hypocrisy. The Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) was banned by the establishment, which also announced rewards for information leading to the arrest of its members. The locals cite the decision as an example of hypocrisy, noting that less than a year earlier, senior Pakistani ministers such as Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah had met with several of the group’s leaders to address their demands. What stands out is that the protest demands combine everyday governance concerns with deeper structural, political, and economic issues. They range from improving public services, including access to MRI facilities and healthcare, to institutional reforms such as abolishing the reserved refugee seats in the legislative assembly. Taken together, these demands suggest that public discontent extends beyond administrative shortcomings to the very framework through which PaJK is governed. The movement, therefore, is not merely about service delivery but also about questions of political representation, accountability, and the region’s constitutional relationship with Pakistan. Alongside this, a current of opinion supporting an independent Jammu and Kashmir has persisted within the region. Its supporters have long argued that they bore the brunt of state pressure. Notably, among figures associated with recent agitation, some identified by authorities belong to this ideological stream. While immediate grievances may trigger mobilization, they often reveal deeper, long-standing tensions. In PaJK, the current unrest must therefore be understood within a broader political history shaped by the unresolved legacies of Partition and growing discontent with the Pakistani state’s political and constitutional approach to the region. The recent developments also unfolded within a broader geopolitical context in which Pakistan’s international profile appeared to rise following its role in facilitating dialogue between the United States and Iran. Against this backdrop, the Pakistani establishment viewed the crisis as an unnecessary domestic irritant to be defused quickly and, unlike during a similar episode last year, adopted a more hardline posture. Media reports have drawn attention to governance issues. But there are strong political roots to the anger and unrest. Could you throw light on this? What is the political arrangement in PaJK? There is little doubt that political factors underpin much of the anger and periodic unrest witnessed in PaJK. The region’s institutions evolved not in isolation but within the broader framework of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy and its wider political culture. At a broader level, political leadership in PaJK has often shifted alongside changes in Islamabad. Given the region’s institutional structure and financial dependence, Pakistan retains significant political and fiscal leverage, reinforcing perceptions that political outcomes are externally influenced rather than locally driven. The Islamabad-based Kashmir Council, chaired by Pakistan’s prime minister, was widely regarded as more influential than the PaJK Legislative Assembly for much of the region’s history. Although the 13th Amendment to the Interim PaJK Constitution in 2018 transferred many of the Council’s powers to the PaJK government, critics contend that Pakistan’s federal establishment continues to exercise significant influence through other constitutional and administrative mechanisms. Geography and economics also mattered. A mountainous region with limited economic diversification, combined with the centrality of Kashmir in Pakistan’s national imagination, left limited space for politics focused primarily on local governance and socio-economic issues. Even so, local leadership has generally remained aware of political red lines. Demands have largely been framed around governance, more fiscal outlays from Islamabad, and budgetary allocations commensurate with population rather than complete rupture. Why is the question of refugee seats so contentious? First, it is important to explain what these 12 seats represent. The 12 reserved seats, commonly referred to as the “refugee seats,” in the PaJK Legislative Assembly are designated for individuals and families who migrated to Pakistan in 1947 from areas that today fall on the Indian side of J&K. Their origins l

多角的分析

経済的影響

PaJKにおける経済的苦境は、電力料金や物価の高騰という直接的な不満だけでなく、地域経済の構造的な脆弱性にも根差している。山岳地帯で経済が多様化しておらず、インフラ整備も遅れているため、イスラマバードからの財政的支援への依存度が高い。この経済的依存が、政治的影響力とも連動し、地元主導の政策決定を阻害する一因となっている。過去の事例でも、経済的格差や資源配分の不均衡が、地域間の緊張を高める要因となってきた。

投資家心理

PaJKにおける投資環境は、政治的不安定性と統治の不透明性により、極めてリスクが高いと見られる。JAACへのテロ対策法適用は、当局が異論を封じ込める姿勢を示しており、法的な安定性や予測可能性を重視する投資家にとっては懸念材料となる。また、地域経済の脆弱性と、パキスタン連邦政府の強い影響力は、独立した事業展開や収益性の確保を困難にする可能性がある。過去の紛争地域における投資事例と比較しても、現時点での大規模な新規投資は期待しにくい。

社会的影響

PaJKにおける社会的な不満は、単なる経済問題にとどまらず、代表制や政治的権利への深い欲求に起因している。JAACのような市民社会組織が禁止されたことは、表現の自由の制限と受け止められ、地域住民の疎外感を深めている。「難民議席」の問題は、過去の政治的遺産と現在の代表制への不満が絡み合った複雑な社会問題であり、地域社会の分断を浮き彫りにしている。過去の同様の抗議活動でも、参加者の多くが、政治的発言権の欠如や不公平な扱いに対する怒りを表明している。

市民の声

PaJKの市民は、日々の生活における経済的負担の増大と、政府からの無視されているという感覚に直面している。特に、電気料金の急騰は、多くの家庭の家計を圧迫している。JAACの禁止は、市民が声を上げる手段を奪われたと感じさせ、無力感と怒りを増幅させている。また、「難民議席」の問題は、過去の移住者とその子孫の権利と、現在の地域住民の代表制との間で、社会的な摩擦を生んでいる。彼らは、自分たちの声が政治に届かないことへの不満を抱えている。

背景・歴史的文脈

パキスタン実効支配下のジャム・カシミール(PaJK)における不満の高まりは、1947年のインド・パキスタン分離独立以来続くカシミール紛争の歴史的文脈の中に位置づけられる。パキスタンは、カシミール全域の自国への併合を主張する一方で、PaJKの統治においては、中央政府の影響力が強く、地方の自治権や代表制が限定的であるという構造的な問題を抱えてきた。2018年の憲法改正で一部権限移譲はあったものの、実質的な影響力は依然としてイスラマバードにあり、これが地元住民の不満を募らせる一因となっている。電力料金や物価高騰といった経済的要因に加え、政治的代表制や統治への不満が、今回の抗議活動の根底にある。

原文ソース

The Diplomat Indonesia

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