Philippines Rice Imports May Hit 5.7 Million MT in 2027 Amid El Niño Fears: USDA

The Philippines may import up to 5.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice in 2027 to secure adequate stocks amid the potential decline in production due to El Niño. A report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that it has revised its rice import forecast for the Philippines to 5.7 million MT for the 2027 trade year from its initial target of 5.6 million MT. The international agency said the Philippines may need to import as much as five million MT of rice to secure stocks against storms, monsoon rains and the developing El Niño. The country’s total rice imports as of Sept. 17 reached 3.9 million MT, according to data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI). This has already surpassed the 3.4 million MT in total rice imports in 2025. Earlier, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said that it would not impose a freeze on the entry of imported rice to build up enough stocks and ensure that rice prices remain stable, as El Niño conditions are expected to last until 2027. The USDA also lowered the Philippines’ milled rice production forecast to 12.25 million MT in 2027 from the earlier 12.4 million MT, due to the potential impact of El Niño on rice harvest. It noted that drier weather conditions from May to June next year, coupled with elevated fertilizer costs, could limit growth in palay or unmilled rice production. "This downward pressure was partially offset by a sharp recovery in reservoir levels at key irrigation dams beginning in August and continuing through September 2026, which has improved irrigation prospects for dry season planting from November to December,” the USDA noted. It noted that the recovery of key reservoir levels came too late after the May to July planting window, which has already affected the wet season harvest. The international agency said that if El Niño strengthens into a very strong event later in 2026, irrigation for the next planting cycle will require closer monitoring. The state weather bureau PAGASA said earlier that the very strong El Niño will begin by October and could intensify by the first half of next year. The weather event will likely cut rice harvest by about 700,000 MT this year.