India's Geopolitical Standing Could Improve With Better China Ties

The United States’ declining interest in India need not be a great setback, as it could open up space for Delhi to resolve most of its core geopolitical issues. At the recent BRICS summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly assured President Xi Jinping that India’s foreign policy was independent of any third party’s influence, implying the United States. While India and China have a long way to go before their relations normalize, the bilateral relationship, which had derailed following the 2020 Galwan clashes, has shown signs of improvement. Especially as the US under the Trump administration has shown less interest in treating India as a partner, New Delhi is looking to build relations with other powers, including China. Improving ties would accentuate both countries' geopolitical positions. The current global landscape suggests a rapid shift towards multipolarity. In Asia, China, Russia, India, and Iran are actively shaping a new geopolitical order. India's policy of strategic autonomy appears more reasonable in this context. As the US potentially loses interest in balancing against China or supporting India, India's need to prioritize ties with the US may diminish. While India maintains relations with the US and its allies, deepening ties with China and other Eurasian powers is also in its national interest. If the US ceases to prioritize countering China, India's reasons for prioritizing the US and groupings like the Quad may lessen. This could reduce expectations of US support in case of border conflicts with China. However, this situation need not be a great setback for India; it could be an opportunity to resolve long-standing geopolitical issues. Even if the border dispute is not immediately resolved, putting it on the back burner could allow India to consolidate its status in South Asia and redeploy resources along its border with Pakistan. It could also facilitate reconnecting with its historical backyard in Central Asia via Xinjiang, allowing India to focus more on development and industrialization. Despite the border dispute, deep historical or civilizational conflicts between China and India are minimal. China's current stance towards India is largely due to a strategic outlook that views China as the dominant regional power. However, past Chinese leaders, like Chiang Kai-shek, supported India's independence and its rise as an Asian power. Improving relations with India would not significantly undermine China's geopolitical position in Asia. In fact, incorporating India as a partner could serve China's interests, such as advancing the Belt and Road Initiative and enhancing regional influence. China treating India not as a "braggart" but as an equal great power would enhance China's credibility in building a new world order. The example of China treating Russia as an equal power since the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689 is instructive. Both countries, especially India, stand to gain geopolitically by improving relations with each other in an increasingly multipolar world. To achieve this, India needs to put the border issue on the back burner and adopt a more friendly approach to Chinese businesses. China, in turn, needs to demonstrate a willingness to treat India as an equal partner.