El Niño May Boost Thai Rice Exports to 7 Million Tonnes

The El Niño phenomenon is expected to help Thailand achieve its rice export goal of 7 million tonnes this year, according to a shipper. Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said if El Niño significantly affects weather patterns in the coming months, rice yields in major producing countries could decline, potentially increasing demand for Thai rice exports. Yields could fall further as high fertiliser prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, reduce usage, he noted. Although Thailand may also feel the effects of El Niño, the country maintains sufficient supply to meet both domestic and export needs. Moreover, export prices are likely to rise, said Mr Chookiat. Thailand produces roughly 20 million tonnes of rice annually, with domestic consumption at around 11 million tonnes. The Middle East conflict has hampered Thai rice exports. In 2025, Thailand shipped around 1 million tonnes to Iraq, but exports to that market dipped to about 90,000 tonnes this year, he noted. Iraq has turned to alternative suppliers such as Pakistan. Some shipments to Iraq are routed through Turkey, but the logistics costs are higher, said Mr Chookiat. "If the conflict continues, Thailand risks losing further market share in the Middle East," he said. "Over the long term, customers who prefer Thai rice may switch to other varieties." According to the Department of Foreign Trade, Thailand exported 3.28 million tonnes of rice in the first half of 2026, down 18.2% year-on-year. Export value fell 20.5% to US$1.91 billion. White rice led exports, accounting for 46% with 1.51 million tonnes, down 20% year-on-year. Thai jasmine rice shipments tallied 0.81 million tonnes, comprising 24.7% of exports, a 10% decline. Parboiled rice exports totalled 0.61 million tonnes for the period, or 18.7%, a dip of 19.7%. The top five export markets in the first half of 2026 were South Africa at 500,000 tonnes, up 10%; the US at 360,000 tonnes, down 17.2%; Malaysia at 330,000 tonnes, an increase of 294%; the Philippines at 300,000 tonnes, up 110%; and China at 160,000 tonnes, a dip of 53.1%. Mr Chookiat attributed the drop in the Chinese market to buyers shifting to cheaper rice from Vietnam and Cambodia, but said he sees positive signs in South Africa, Malaysia and the Philippines.