
Vietnam Records $16.65 Billion Trade Deficit in First Half
Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of $16.65 billion in the first half of the year. While agricultural and service sectors showed robust growth, international economic uncertainties and challenges in some industries remain concerns. Foreign direct investment (FDI) saw a significant increase, and domestic consumption is showing signs of recovery.
Releasing the country's socio-economic data for the second quarter and the first half of the year on July 3, NSO Director Nguyen Thi Huong said Vietnam sustained positive growth across most industries and sectors despite a challenging international economic environment. Of the six-month total, agricultural products generated 18.59 billion USD, up 0.2% year-on-year; aquatic products 5.7 billion USD, up 11.4%; forestry products 9.2 billion USD, up 4.6%; livestock products 375.8 million USD, up 34.6%; and salt 7.7 million USD, up 39.8%. A report by the Ministry of Finance on the first year of implementing the resolution highlighted fresh momentum in diversifying capital sources and removing administrative bottlenecks. In the first six months, total retail sales and consumer service revenue amounted to an estimated 3,889.5 trillion VND, up 12.9% year-on-year. After excluding price factors, real growth stood at 7.3%, reflecting a solid recovery in domestic purchasing power and consumer demand. Including additional registered capital, total capital flowing into the market reached nearly 3.1 quadrillion VND, marking an 11.3% year-on-year increase. As of June 30, total registered FDI, including newly registered capital, additional capital for existing projects and foreign investors' capital contributions and share purchases, rose 61% year-on-year to 34.65 billion USD. Releasing the second-quarter and first-half socio-economic report, NSO Director General Nguyen Thi Huong said June’s CPI was still up 3.21% from December 2025 and 4.69% higher than a year earlier. The agreement marks a meaningful evolution in the relationship between the two organisations: from project-level collaboration to a long-term strategic framework aimed at bringing international standards to bear on the planning, development, and operation of Sun Group's aviation infrastructure portfolio. According to the Da Nang Statistics Office, total social investment exceeded 50.98 trillion VND (about 1.94 billion USD) in the first six months, up 31.5% from the same period last year. The strong growth reflects investors' confidence in the city's business environment, as well as the effectiveness of its investment promotion policies and efforts to accelerate project implementation. Services remained the key growth driver, expanding 8.89% in the first six months and accounting for 54% of GRDP while contributing 56% of overall growth. Transport recorded the strongest performance with growth of 13.68%, followed by trade at 8.4% and finance at 8.21%. Meanwhile, the real estate sector continued to face difficulties. Private passenger vehicles account for the overwhelming majority, with 369,849 battery electric passenger cars in operation, alongside 3,396 electric trucks and 1,571 electric buses. Supporting industries are no longer simply auxiliary manufacturing sectors. They have become the foundation for enhancing industrial self-reliance, increasing localisation, improving competitiveness and enabling businesses to integrate more deeply into regional and global supply chains. Samsung plans to invest an additional 1 billion USD in Vietnam this year as it advances medium- and long-term expansion plans across electronics, display manufacturing and electro-mechanics. Hoang Minh Chien, Deputy Director of the Trade Promotion Agency (Vietrade) under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said trade promotion activities are undergoing a significant shift from broad-based support to more in-depth assistance, with enhancing business competitiveness at the core. Rather than merely facilitating participation in trade fairs or business matching events, current programmes focus on brand building, market intelligence, access to new technologies and compliance with international standards. With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is 26,463 VND/USD, and the floor rate 23,943 VND/USD. According to the Department of Finance, as of May 31, the city had nearly 21,000 active FDI projects worth over 143.3 billion USD, remaining Vietnam’s leading FDI destination. In the first half of 2026, FDI reached over 6.8 billion USD. The police determined that, from 2024, this ring has completed 141 shipments, smuggling more than 28,000 diamonds of various types from Hong Kong (China) into Vietnam for sale. Ho Chi Minh City is entering a new phase of development with the ambition of becoming a green, modern and smart global metropolis, in line with the spirit of the Politburo's Resolution No. 09 on building and developing the city in a new era. Toyota Vietnam (TMV) posted a 12% month-on-month increase in vehicle sales in June, with hybrid deliveries surging 89%, reflecting growing demand for fuel-efficient and lower-emission vehicles. Construction of the new facility, located at the Tam Hiep Port Logistics and Industrial Park in the Chu Lai Open Economic Zone, began in July 2025. Equipped with advanced manufacturing technologies, it is designed to produce cleaning equipment that meets international standards for quality, safety and sustainability. The conclusion of the negotiations will mark the beginning of a new phase of cooperation, laying a solid foundation for the promotion of trade and investment between the two sides, while also expanding collaboration in areas of mutual interest. Accordingly, the price of E5 RON92 petrol is capped at 19,730 VND (0.75 USD) per litre, down 1,055 VND, while E10 RON95-III is priced at no more than 20,415 VND per litre, down 788 VND. According to the Vietnam National Authority of Tourism, the country welcomed around 10.6 million international visitors in the first five months of 2026, up nearly 15% year on year and the highest figure recorded in many years. Singapore remained one of Vietnam’s fastest-growing source markets during the period. Copyright, VietnamPlus, Vietnam News Agency (VNA) Editor-in-chief, Mr. Tran Tien Duan.
多角的分析
ベトナム経済は、サービス部門の力強い成長と国内消費の回復に支えられ、堅調な成長軌道を維持している。しかし、166.5億ドルという上半期の貿易赤字は、輸入依存度の高さと、グローバルなサプライチェーンの変動に対する脆弱性を示唆している。特に、一部の製造業や不動産セクターが直面する困難は、経済全体の持続的な発展に向けた課題である。政府が推進する FDI の大幅な増加は、海外からの資本流入を促進し、経済成長の原動力となる可能性を秘めているが、その効果が貿易収支の改善にどう結びつくかが注目される。
FDI が前年同期比61%増と大幅に増加したことは、ベトナムの投資環境に対する国際的な関心の高まりを示している。特に、サムスンによる追加投資計画や、航空インフラ分野における国際基準の導入は、長期的な成長ポテンシャルへの期待を反映している。しかし、貿易赤字の拡大は、為替レートの安定性やインフレ率への懸念を投資家に抱かせる可能性がある。ハイブリッド車の販売増加など、環境意識の高まりを反映した分野への投資は、新たな機会をもたらすだろう。
国内消費の回復は、市民の購買力向上と生活水準の改善を示唆しており、ポジティブな兆候である。しかし、インフレ率が依然として4.69%(前年同月比)であることは、特に低所得者層の生活費負担増という形で、社会的な格差を拡大させる可能性がある。また、不動産セクターの低迷は、関連産業の雇用や、都市部における住宅市場の不安定化につながる懸念がある。電気自動車の普及は、環境意識の高まりと技術革新の進展を示す一方で、インフラ整備の遅れが社会的な課題となる可能性も指摘されている。
市民の生活実感としては、小売売上高の増加は、消費意欲の回復と捉えられる。しかし、インフレ率が4.69%と高止まりしているため、実質的な購買力の上昇には限界がある。特に、ガソリン価格の下落は、輸送コストの抑制に寄与する可能性があるが、全体的な物価上昇圧力は依然として存在する。不動産市場の停滞は、住宅購入を検討している層にとっては、選択肢の増加や価格の安定につながる可能性がある一方、不動産業界で働く人々にとっては雇用不安につながる。電気自動車への関心の高まりは、環境問題への意識の表れであり、将来的な交通手段の変化への期待を示している。
背景・歴史的文脈
ベトナムは、1986年のドイモイ(刷新)政策以降、市場経済を導入し、目覚ましい経済成長を遂げてきた。特に、製造業と輸出を経済成長の牽引役としてきたが、その過程で輸入への依存度も高まった。中国との経済的な結びつきは依然として強く、グローバルサプライチェーンにおける重要な位置を占めている。しかし、米中対立の激化や地政学的なリスクの高まりを受け、ベトナム政府はサプライチェーンの多様化と国内産業の強化を模索している。今回の貿易赤字は、こうした構造的な課題を浮き彫りにしている。
原文ソース
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