
Northern Vietnam to See Temporary Sun Before Heavy Rain Later in Week
Northern Vietnam will experience a temporary return to sunny weather early in the week, but widespread thunderstorms are expected around July 19. The Central Highlands and Southern regions will continue to see frequent afternoon showers. Recent heavy rainfall has caused damage in mountainous areas.
Northern Vietnam is expected to see a temporary return to sunny weather and rising temperatures early in the week, but widespread thunderstorms are forecast to return around July 19. The Central Highlands and Southern regions will continue to experience frequent afternoon showers. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, during the week of July 5-12, a trough of low pressure combined with a low-pressure vortex caused many days of thunderstorms in the North. Specifically, July 8-9 saw widespread moderate to heavy rainfall, with some mountainous areas experiencing very heavy downpours. As the low-pressure trough weakens, rainfall in the North is expected to decrease rapidly until July 17, with only localized showers. Daytime temperatures will be sunny, with highs generally ranging from 33-35 degrees Celsius, and some areas may experience heatwaves. However, from July 18, the low-pressure trough is predicted to reform and become more active. Around July 19, the North is likely to experience widespread thunderstorms, followed by several days of moderate to heavy rainfall. According to AccuWeather, Hanoi's temperatures at the beginning of next week will drop by about 3-5 degrees Celsius compared to today, ranging from 27-31 degrees Celsius mid-week, before gradually increasing to a peak of around 37 degrees Celsius by the end of the week. In Sa Pa (Lao Cai), temperatures will generally be between 19-25 degrees Celsius. Until July 13, areas from Thanh Hoa to Hue City will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms, with rainfall amounts generally between 10-30 mm, and over 80 mm in some places. Afterwards, rainfall will gradually decrease, and widespread heatwaves are not expected to appear. The Central Highlands and Southern regions will continue to be affected by the southwest monsoon. Until July 15, these regions will maintain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings, with rainfall amounts generally between 15-30 mm, and over 100 mm in some places. During July 16-17, as the southwest monsoon weakens, rainfall will temporarily decrease. From July 18-19, the monsoon will become active again, leading to an increase in widespread showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to heavy rainfall in many areas. The heavy rainfall from July 8 to 11 caused significant damage in many mountainous and midland provinces of the North. According to the Directorate for Water Resources and Disaster Prevention, one person was injured in Son La province when rocks fell on a car due to a landslide. Seven houses collapsed, 190 were damaged, and 90 households were evacuated urgently due to landslide risks. Furthermore, 137 houses were flooded or affected by landslides. Flooding also caused damage to over 935 hectares of rice fields and crops. Dozens of livestock and hundreds of poultry died or were washed away, and nearly 14 hectares of aquaculture farms were affected. Many national and provincial roads experienced landslides and flooding, causing traffic disruptions, but these have been rectified. Additionally, thousands of meters of irrigation canals, numerous infrastructure projects, schools, and power systems were damaged. Over 4,000 households in Son La lost electricity but have since had it restored. Source: VnExpress
多角的分析
ベトナム北部の気象予報は、農業生産に直接的な影響を与える。特に、7月末にかけて予想される広範囲の雷雨と大雨は、稲作をはじめとする主要作物の生育に打撃を与え、収穫量の減少や品質低下を招く可能性がある。これは、食料価格の安定や農村部の経済に影響を及ぼし、インフレ圧力の一因となることも考えられる。また、インフラへの被害も懸念され、復旧には追加の経済的負担が生じる。
短期的な投資家にとっては、気象変動による農業生産への影響はリスク要因となる。特に、食品関連企業や農業関連セクターへの投資は、収穫予測の不確実性から慎重な判断が求められる。一方で、インフラ復旧や防災関連の需要増加は、建設・エンジニアリング分野への投資機会を生み出す可能性もある。長期的な視点では、気候変動への適応策を講じている企業や、サプライチェーンの強靭化を図る企業への投資が有利になるだろう。
最近の豪雨による被災地の状況は、地方の脆弱性を浮き彫りにしている。ソンラ省での家屋の倒壊、避難、インフラの損傷は、住民の生活基盤を脅かす。特に、山岳地帯に住む人々は、土砂崩れや洪水のリスクに常に晒されており、生活再建には長期的な支援が必要となる。また、インフラの被害は、教育や医療へのアクセスにも影響を及ぼす可能性があり、社会的不平等を拡大させる懸念もある。
ベトナム北部、特に山岳地帯の住民にとって、今回の予報は不安材料となる。7月末にかけての広範囲な雷雨と大雨は、過去の被害を想起させる。家屋の損壊、農作物の被害、そして土砂崩れのリスクは、日々の生活に直結する脅威である。昨年8月にも、北部山岳地帯で大雨による土砂崩れが発生し、多くの家屋が流失し、住民が避難を余儀なくされた事例があった。今回の予報は、こうした過去の経験から、住民の間に警戒感を高めることになるだろう。また、交通網の寸断は、物資の供給や移動の自由を制限し、生活必需品の価格上昇を招く可能性も指摘されている。
背景・歴史的文脈
ベトナム北部では、夏季にモンスーンの影響で雨が多くなる傾向がある。特に、低気圧の谷や熱帯低気圧の接近は、局地的な豪雨や洪水、土砂崩れを引き起こす主要因となっている。2022年8月には、北部の山岳地帯で集中豪雨により大規模な土砂崩れが発生し、多数の家屋が流失、住民の避難を余儀なくされた。これらの自然災害は、ベトナムの国土の約70%が山岳地帯であること、そして多くの住民が脆弱な地域に居住していることから、被害が拡大しやすい構造となっている。政府は防災インフラの整備や早期警報システムの強化を進めているが、気候変動による異常気象の頻発化・激甚化は、依然として大きな課題となっている。
原文ソース
VnExpress