Indonesia Faces Critical Forest Fire Phase Until Sep 2026 Amid Prolonged El Niño

Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has projected that the country will enter a "critical phase" for forest fires (Karhutla) lasting until September 2026. This long-term forecast is attributed to the high probability of the El Niño phenomenon persisting until 2027. The El Niño phenomenon tends to bring reduced rainfall and increased temperatures to regions like the Pacific, including Indonesia, thereby promoting drier conditions. This, in turn, elevates the risk of forest fires, particularly in highly combustible areas such as peatlands. Forest fires are a severe issue in Indonesia, causing a wide range of impacts including worsening air pollution, health problems, economic losses, and effects on biodiversity. In the past, large-scale forest fires have also led to transboundary haze affecting neighboring countries, escalating into regional diplomatic issues. The BMKG's projection urges government agencies and local authorities to strengthen fire prevention measures, expand monitoring systems, and prepare for swift firefighting operations. The public is also called upon to raise awareness about the increased fire risk and be cautious with fire handling. The specific mention of September 2026 suggests that the effects of El Niño may prolong and bring significant changes to Indonesia's climate patterns. This forecast will serve as a crucial indicator for future environmental policies and disaster preparedness plans in Indonesia.