El Niño Mitigation Requires Both Rapid Response and Long-Term Solutions

By Marron Joshua F. Mendoza QUICK-RESPONSE MEASURES to counter the impact of the so-called Super El Niño will be critical in minimizing the damage to agriculture, though such “reactive” responses need to be rounded out with longer-term fixes, analysts said. Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar added that sustained investment in bioengineering will also serve to address the problems posed by such dry spells over the long term. Mr. Dar said the rapid-response measures should include credit facilities for farmers to avail of, while maximizing yields where irrigation is expected to remain reliable. Mr. Dar said that partnerships among the Department of Agriculture (DA), the private sector, local government units, and state colleges and universities must be strengthened to empower smallholder farmers to be more productive, profitable, and resilient. “A resilience revolution in agriculture is now an imperative to elevate and sustain our efforts in scaling regenerative and resilient agriculture,” Mr. Dar told BusinessWorld via Viber. Mr. Dar noted that a severe El Niño will cause “food inflation to shoot up as a result of lower supply available in the market. Overall, the GDP (gross domestic product) contributed by agriculture will be lower. The crops sector will be greatly affected during this event.” Mr. Dar said that while the government claims that it has enough measures in place to mitigate the impact of the El Niño, its reactiveness is not ideal, due to funding limitations. He also said that while the lessons of past El Niño episodes translated to meaningful policies for the agricultural sector, more long-term planning and sustained implementation are needed. “We know that El Niño comes in a cycle and a long-term plan would have been put in place as a guide for continued construction of rainwater harvesting, the distribution of more solar-powered irrigation systems and other bio-engineering solutions including sustained deforestation efforts,” Mr. Dar said. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, rice and maize (corn) are among the crops most vulnerable to El Niño in Asia. According to a study conducted by retired University of the Philippines Los Baños professor and scientist Teodoro C. Mendoza, the regions at significant risk of being affected by a severe El Niño are Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, the Bicol Region, the Western Visayas, the Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, the Davao Region, and Cotabato. According to Mr. Mendoza, coconut, sugarcane, banana, and cacao are among the other crops that may be impacted by a Super El Niño. Mr. Mendoza estimated direct income losses to farmers and fisherfolk of P77.8 billion, with indirect losses due to unemployment and inflation amounting to P209 billion. Mr. Mendoza said Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia offer examples for reducing losses, including irrigation modernization and reservoir management, cooperative empowerment and crop diversification, and energy diversification and drought-proofing. He proposed a contingency fund of up to P70 billion for agricultural relief, food price stabilization, and livelihood support, as well ASEAN-wide joint procurement of rice and energy, climate risk pooling, and coordinated responses to El Niño-induced yield losses. “Without systemic reforms, the country risks deepening import dependence, severe inflation, and worsening rural poverty,” Mr. Mendoza said. “Building resilience is not only a matter of climate adaptation. It is a national imperative for safeguarding livelihoods, food, and economic stability,” he added. Information Source: BusinessWorld Economy