Mindanao Faces Potential Power Shortage by 2028, Says NGCP

MINDANAO’s power reserves are expected to thin by 2028 in the absence of new generating capacity, according to the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP). “In Mindanao, we are seeing this, although I hope the NGCP’s projection is wrong. It would be good for other government agencies to study this as well and validate the NGCP’s data,” NGCP Assistant Vice-President Cynthia P. Alabanza said during the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum on Wednesday. “We are seeing that by 2028, there will be no excess capacity left,” she added. She said rising power demand is threatening to outpace available supply. She warned that the Mindanao grid could face a crippling power crisis similar to the one in 2012. While the entry of coal-fired power plants helped ease the situation, no additional capacity has been added since then. Compared to Mindanao, the Luzon grid has excess power reserves of around 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts. Over the past three years, the Mindanao grid has recorded only two yellow or red alerts, a situation that has changed in recent months. Since the start of the year, 17 yellow alerts and four red alerts were raised over the Mindanao grid due to the shutdown of several power plants. A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement. If conditions worsen and supply is not enough to meet demand, a red alert is declared, raising the risk of rotational brownouts. Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said government agencies are working to resolve the power situation, especially in the Visayas. “This whole exercise needs time, planning, and cooperation. If you want to fix the energy situation in Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, and the whole Philippines by 2030, you should have started construction by 2025,” Ms. Garin said. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera