Internal Coalition Cracks Threaten Government Stability

Less than four months after taking office, the coalition government appears to be confronting the greatest threat to its survival -- not from an emboldened opposition, but from mounting pressures within its own ranks. When the Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party formed a coalition with Pheu Thai Party following the Feb 8 election, it was widely regarded as one of the most politically secure administrations in years. With BJT controlling 191 House seats, a comfortable parliamentary majority and perceived influence over the Senate and state apparatuses, many analysts predicted the coalition could govern for a full four-year term with little difficulty. Opposition parties coined the term "blue regime" to describe what they saw as BJT's dominance across political landscape. The prevailing view was that the government would remain stable unless it undermined itself. Approaching its four-month anniversary on Aug 10, that prediction is being tested. Instead of legislative setbacks, the government finds itself battling a series of corruption scandals, questions over internal party unity and growing public scrutiny. While the opposition is preparing a no-confidence debate later this year, the more immediate risk appears to come from within BJT itself. The most damaging controversy is the alleged corruption surrounding recruitment examinations for local government officials under the Interior Ministry, which Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul also heads. Investigators believe widespread cheating, answer-sheet manipulation and bribery generated illicit payments estimated at 4.5 billion baht, making it one of the largest public-sector recruitment fraud cases. Authorities are preparing to revoke the appointments of nearly 6,000 successful candidates after uncovering evidence of systematic irregularities. The investigation has expanded beyond examination officials. Police tracing financial transactions have identified links to local political figures and influential provincial networks in Buri Ram, Satun and Phetchabun, provinces regarded as key BJT strongholds. Several groups have already been charged, including former senior officials from the Department of Local Administration, examination administrators and individuals accused of manipulating answer sheets. Yet the political pressure extends beyond those already facing prosecution, said observers. Given the scale of the alleged operation, critics argue it would have been difficult to execute without political protection. Public attention has therefore shifted to whether investigators will pursue politicians suspected of involvement rather than limiting accountability to civil servants. The government's response has done little to ease those concerns. Although Mr Anutin has insisted investigators should follow the evidence, critics argue the administration risks creating the impression that responsibility will stop with bureaucrats while politically connected figures remain untouched. The second controversy surrounds the 1.62-billion-baht TH-AI Passport project under the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society. Opposition lawmakers have questioned procurement procedures, alleging bidding specifications favoured companies linked to powerful figures within BJT. The ministry falls under the supervision of Chaichanok Chidchob, son of BJT patriarch Newin Chidchob, making the project politically sensitive. The opposition is expected to highlight the scheme during the upcoming no-confidence debate as a possible case of policy-driven corruption. The third issue involves the long-running investigation into alleged collusion during the 2025 Senate election. The Election Commission and the Department of Special Investigation are investigating complaints involving more than 200 individuals, including senior BJT figures. Opposition parties argue that senators aligned with the party dominate the upper house, allowing BJT to influence appointments to independent constitutional bodies and weakening institutional oversight. Although no legal conclusions have been reached, the case continues to reinforce opposition claims that excessive political concentration has eroded the system of checks and balances. Leadership tension Although Mr Anutin, Mr Newin and Deputy Prime Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn have denied disagreements, speculation continues over appointments within the Interior Ministry, particularly the position of permanent secretary. Such disputes are common in governing parties, but they attract greater attention because BJT's political dominance has long rested on an image of unity among its senior leaders and influential provincial factions. The timing is particularly sensitive as parliament prepares to reconvene later this month. The opposition People's Party (PP) has confirmed it will seek a no-confidence debate targeting Mr Anutin and his cabinet, focusing primarily on corruption and governance. The approaching debate has also fuelled rumours of an alternative coalition involving Pheu Thai, PP and Klatham Party should Mr Anutin's position weaken. Speculation intensified following reports of an alleged overseas meeting between former prime minister and so-called Pheu Thai's spiritual leader Thaksin Shinawatra and Klatham leader Capt Thamanat Prompow, although all parties have denied such discussions. Despite the political intrigue, the prospect of such a coalition remains remote. PP has consistently rejected cooperation with parties associated with traditional patronage politics, including Klatham. Senior party leaders have denied any negotiations, while Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of Move Forward Party, PP's predecessor, has argued that the opposition should focus on exposing corruption rather than pursuing power through parliamentary deal-making. Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot of Chulalongkorn University likewise believes ideological differences make cooperation between PP and Klatham highly unlikely. Pheu Thai also has little incentive to abandon a coalition that currently allows it to remain in government. Consequently, many analysts view the coalition rumours less as a realistic scenario than as political messaging intended to pile pressure on BJT while enhancing Klatham's bargaining position. Ultimately, however, the government's survival will depend less on opposition maneuvering than on its handling of corruption investigations. If authorities pursue the local government recruitment scandal without regard to political affiliation, the administration could demonstrate that a commanding parliamentary majority is compatible with accountability. But if investigations are perceived as stopping with senior bureaucrats while shielding politicians, public confidence is likely to deteriorate further. Four months into office, the coalition government still enjoys one of th