'Operation Romanov' was plot vs. First Family, NBI says
The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) testified in the Vice President's impeachment trial that 'Operation Romanov' was an alleged assassination plot targeting the First Family, not the Vice President. The NBI concluded the plot was aimed at the President and his family based on context.
National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) Regional Director Jeremy Lotoc on Tuesday said he believes "Operation Romanov" referred to an alleged assassination plot against President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and the First Family—not Vice President Sara Duterte. Lotoc, a witness presented by the House prosecution panel, made the statement after Senator-Judge Panfilo Lacson asked whether he had the impression that the supposed "Oplan Romanov" threat was directed at the Vice President. "I don't think so, Your Honor. First of all, the context of Operation Romanov was that it was directed against the First Family. It's definitely against the President and his family," Lotoc said on the fifth day of Duterte's impeachment trial. "Ngayon nung tinanong ho siya ni Princess Maui, doon kami nagtaka. Anong ibig sabihin ng Romanov? Ano'ng context niya ng Romanov? Bakit against sa Vice President? Hindi naman sila ang First Family eh," he added. (When Princess Maui asked Duterte, that was when we wondered: What does Romanov mean? What was the context behind Romanov? Why would it be directed at the Vice President? They aren't even the First Family.) Lotoc said this was why the NBI sought to invite vlogger Princess Maui—who brought up "Operation Romanov" during Duterte's online press conference in November 2024—to clarify the matter. It was during the same press conference that Duterte said she had spoken to someone about killing Marcos if she herself were killed. However, Princess Maui did not respond to the NBI's invitation. Lotoc, who previously headed the NBI Cybercrime Division that investigated the alleged threats against Marcos and his family, said the term "Operation Romanov" was first mentioned publicly by Davao City Mayor Sebastian "Baste" Duterte during a Maisug Rally in January 2024. The Maisug movement is a political coalition formed by supporters of former President Rodrigo Duterte and the Duterte family. The term "Maisug" is a Visayan word meaning "brave" or "courageous." "Based doon sa video na 'yun, January if I'm not mistaken, 'yung Maisug Rally. Ang unang nagbanggit ng Romanov, si Mayor Baste—parang tinatakot niya 'yung Presidente," Lotoc said. (Based on that video, if I'm not mistaken, it was during the January Maisug Rally. Mayor Baste was the first to mention Romanov. It appeared as though he was threatening the President.) He said investigators found it puzzling that Princess Maui later asked Vice President Duterte about "Operation Romanov." "So, medyo nakita namin, teka muna, parang baliktad yata ang sitwasyon. Kung kay Mayor Baste nagsimula ang Romanov, bakit ito 'yung tinatanong ni Princess Maui sa Bise Presidente? So, medyo, it doesn't make sense, sir." (We thought, wait a minute, the situation seems reversed. If the Romanov issue started with Mayor Baste, why was Princess Maui asking the Vice President about it? It didn't make sense to us.) Because Princess Maui did not cooperate with the investigation, Lotoc said the NBI classified the alleged "Operation Romanov" plot as "non-validated information." Lacson also said he had the impression that the Oplan Romanov was a threat supposedly directed against Duterte and her family. “I don’t know about the other Senator-Judges, pero until today, when Senator-Judge Raffy Tulfo clarified na ‘yun palang Oplan Romanov ay threat against the First Family. Ang impression ko since last week nung pinag-uusapan natin ‘yung Oplan Romanov, ay threat ito against the Vice President,” he said. (I don't know about the other senator-judges, but I didn’t know until today when Senator-Judge Raffy Tulfo clarified that the Oplan Romanov is a threat against the First Family. My impression since last week when we were talking about Oplan Romanov, is that it is a threat against the Vice President.) Senator-Judge Erwin Tulfo then asked what the bureau did after failing to obtain confirmation from the vlogger. Lotoc said investigators turned to open-source information in an attempt to verify the claim. When Tulfo asked whether he considered Princess Maui's information reliable, Lotoc replied: "It is not reliable, insofar as the Cybercrime Division is concerned." Senator-Judge Alan Peter Cayetano, however, cautioned against concluding that Mayor Baste Duterte had threatened the First Family. "Remember, there's a thin line between a warning and a threat," Cayetano said. "In the same manner that we have to be fair to the First Family, we have to be fair also to Mayor Baste and to the Dutertes, rather than draw a conclusion," he added. Senator-Judge Robinhood Padilla said "Operation Romanov" should be viewed as a threat against the country's top leaders who have fought the communist movement, including both the Marcos and Duterte families, and therefore could also encompass the Vice President.— MCG, GMA News
多角的分析
「オペレーション・ロマノフ」に関するNBIの証言は、直接的な経済的影響は小さい。しかし、政治的言説における不確実性や、指導者層間の潜在的な対立を示唆する情報は、国内の投資環境や市場心理に間接的な影響を与える可能性がある。特に、大統領一家への脅威とされる事案は、国家の安定性に対する懸念を高め、外国からの直接投資や観光客の動向に影響を及ぼしかねない。フィリピン経済は、政治的安定に大きく依存しているため、このような言説の広がりは注意深く監視されるべきである。
「オペレーション・ロマノフ」に関するNBIの証言は、フィリピンの政治リスクを浮き彫りにしている。投資家にとって、指導者層間の潜在的な緊張や、暗殺計画といったセンセーショナルな言説は、政治的安定性への懸念材料となる。特に、大統領一家への標的とされた可能性は、国家の安全保障に対する不確実性を高める。過去のフィリピンにおける政治的混乱が経済に与えた影響を鑑みれば、このような情報は、短期的な市場のボラティリティを高め、長期的な投資判断に影響を与える可能性がある。透明性の高い情報開示と、政治的安定の維持が、投資家からの信頼を得る上で不可欠である。
「オペレーション・ロマノフ」に関するNBIの証言は、フィリピン社会における政治的緊張と情報流通の複雑さを浮き彫りにしている。ブロガーのプリンセス・マウイ氏がこの件で副大統領に言及したことは、SNSを通じた情報の拡散が、事実関係の混乱や誤解を生む可能性を示唆している。また、「マイシュグ・ラリー」での市長の発言が、当初は第一家族への脅威と解釈されつつも、後に副大統領への言及へとすり替わった（とNBIが解釈した）経緯は、政治的な言説がどのように操作され、国民の間に不確かな情報が流布するのかという問題を提起している。これは、市民が正確な情報を得る権利と、政治的言説の責任という公共の課題に繋がる。
NBIの証言は、一般市民にとって、政治的な情報がどのように錯綜し、時に混乱を招くのかを改めて認識させる出来事である。SNSで拡散される情報や、政治集会での発言が、意図せずとも国民の間に不安や憶測を広める可能性がある。特に、暗殺計画といったセンセーショナルな話題は、市民の安全への懸念を煽りかねない。市民は、政府やメディアからの情報だけでなく、SNS上の情報に対しても、批判的な視点を持つことの重要性を再認識する必要がある。正確な情報へのアクセスが、健全な市民社会の基盤となる。
背景・歴史的文脈
「オペレーション・ロマノフ」を巡るNBIの証言は、フィリピン国内の政治的対立、特に現マルコス政権と前ドゥテルテ政権支持者との間の緊張関係を背景にしている。2024年1月の「マイシュグ・ラリー」でダバオ市長が「ロマノフ」に言及したことは、大統領への牽制と解釈された。その後、ブロガーのプリンセス・マウイ氏が副大統領弾劾裁判に関連してこの言葉を使い、NBIが副大統領一家への脅威と誤解した経緯がある。NBIが最終的に大統領一家への暗殺計画と結論づけたのは、情報源の不明瞭さと、政治的言説の混乱が背景にあると考えられる。これは、フィリピンにおける政治的情報伝達の複雑さと、SNSの影響力の大きさを浮き彫りにしている。
原文ソース
GMA News Philippines