Vietnam Stocks: Capital Flows into Oil, Banking Sectors - VN-Index Enters New Uptrend?

The VN-Index closed the session on September 15 at 1,811.15 points, an increase of nearly 23 points. The market breadth was clearly tilted towards buyers, with 17 out of 18 industry groups gaining points. Oil and gas surged the most, followed by utilities and industrial goods and services. According to Yuanta Vietnam Securities, the recovery momentum on September 16 primarily came from the oil and gas and banking sectors. Foreign investors continued to be net buyers on HoSE with approximately VND 719 billion, focusing on banks and oil and gas stocks. Some strongly net-bought stocks included VCB (Vietcombank) with VND 229 billion, BSR (Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical) with VND 158 billion, BID (Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam) with VND 125 billion, TCB (Techcombank) with VND 105 billion, and MBB (Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank) with VND 98 billion. The oil and gas sector emerged as a notable bright spot following the September 15 recovery. Yuanta Vietnam suggests investors can wait for adjustments to consider deploying capital into certain oil and gas stocks. Technically, Tien Phong Securities (TPS) assesses that the VN-Index has temporarily moved above all price average lines, thus preserving the upward trend. However, the liquidity during the recovery session was not substantial enough to negate the two previous strong distribution sessions. Similarly, HSC Securities believes that the capital flow has improved and spread better, but liquidity has not yet shown a breakthrough. Therefore, there is insufficient basis to confirm that the market has entered a new uptrend. Securities firms generally agree that the recovery may continue, but the market still has the potential for volatility as it approaches resistance levels. Yuanta Vietnam forecasts that the VN-Index may test the 1,820-1,825 point range in the coming sessions, while HSC points to the resistance zone of 1,820-1,850 points. This period also coincides with the market preparing for the derivatives expiration week and ahead of the Fed meeting, suggesting that market movements could be more sensitive. On the support side, the 1,780 point level is being consolidated. TPS identifies the 1,715-1,755 point range as a more significant support level if the market experiences a pullback. For short-term investors, HSC recommends limiting aggressive buying and high leverage, especially for stocks that have already risen sharply. Investors can utilize the recovery to restructure portfolios, reduce margin, and prioritize stocks with relatively good strength and improving capital flows. Yuanta Vietnam suggests investors can maintain their current stock allocation and wait for adjustments to gradually invest in the oil and gas group or in large- and mid-cap stocks with good price momentum. Mr. Ho Huu Tuan Hieu, Head of Investment Strategy Group at SSI Research, stated that expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates in September have been partially reflected in the market's cautious trading and the adjustment phase over the past two weeks. According to Mr. Hieu, the probability of a Fed rate hike began to shift after the September 2 holiday, following statements at the Jackson Hole symposium and the release of macroeconomic data. Since then, market volatility has narrowed, and many stocks have declined. Therefore, information about the Fed's interest rate decision in the September meeting is no longer entirely new to the market. A more significant focus this week is the first portfolio rebalancing of the market's upgraded index constituents. Mr. Hieu believes this event could positively impact market performance by attracting new capital inflows, thereby improving market liquidity and broad buying pressure. He noted that this signal appears to have begun emerging from the September 14 trading session. After a period of net selling, foreign investors returned to net buying over VND 1.5 trillion in the September 14 and 15 sessions, with capital concentrated in many stocks within the FTSE index constituents.