El Niño to Hit Philippines Rice Supply Next Year, DA Warns

The Department of Agriculture (DA) has warned that the incoming El Niño, expected to fully set in next year, could deal a sharper blow to the country’s rice supply and production. DA spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said the full brunt of the drought caused by El Niño may be felt during the dry season harvest in the first semester of next year. "This year, we do not see an impact of El Niño on our overall supply. It will be the first semester next year," he told reporters during a briefing. The government will focus on local production while continuing to allow the entry of imported grains to strengthen local rice stocks. "We are focusing on local production, and we will not stop imports to boost stocks. Our issue for the supply of rice will not be this year but next year, especially during the dry harvest season," De Mesa said. He added that the full impact on local rice production would depend on the severity and the length of the El Niño. To further lessen the impact of the drought on local rice harvest, the DA will maximize rice production in areas that will not be severely affected. The DA is also requesting an additional P6.2 billion for fuel and fertilizer assistance to farmers under its Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food and Transport (UPLIFT) program. The agency is only awaiting the special allotment release order before it could disburse much-needed support to local producers. Furthermore, the DA is proposing an additional P5 billion to fund the construction of more solar irrigation infrastructure. Earlier, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the recent rains brought by the southwest monsoon could cushion the impact of El Niño on palay or unmilled rice production to up to 400,000 metric tons from the initial 700,000 MT decline. Meanwhile, De Mesa said rice imports have totaled 3.67 million MT as of Sept. 3, with shipments seen surpassing the record 4.81 million MT imports recorded in 2024. "The initial projection for total rice imports that was released could be around five million MT, but maybe not more than that," he added. De Mesa explained that the DA's policy to stop the entry of five percent broken rice could also even the odds for locally produced rice and not impact the retail prices of grain. He noted that the rice arriving now is the 25-percent broken variety, so no price increase is expected. He also warned that a strong El Niño could trigger a La Niña episode toward the end of next year, adding further strain to local farm production. "Normally, if El Nino is strong, the next one is La Niña toward the end of 2027. So next year is a more challenging year compared to 2026," he said. According to the state weather bureau PAGASA, a moderate to strong El Niño is now present in the Tropical Pacific, with the weather event lasting until the first half of 2027 and could reach a very strong state before the end of this year. The total agricultural damage from the 2024 El Niño episode reached P15.3 billion, causing a 3.3 percent decline in the country’s agriculture and fisheries output.