Western Myanmar's Rakhine State faces imminent risks of severe drought and water shortages due to El Niño

Western Myanmar's Rakhine (Arakan) State faces imminent risks of severe drought, elevated temperatures, and acute drinking water shortages as a strong El Niño weather pattern sets in through late 2026 and early 2027, climate experts and meteorologists warn. According to a September forecast by Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), the intensifying El Niño phenomenon is expected to cause erratic rainfall, unseasonal storm activity, extreme summer heat waves, and widespread drought across coastal regions. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Specialized Meteorological Centre and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that strong El Niño conditions will peak between November 2026 and January 2027, likely persisting through February 2027 across Southeast Asia. Environmental experts emphasize that coastal Rakhine State is particularly vulnerable, with extreme heat and altered precipitation threatening agricultural yields, livestock survival, public health, and basic drinking water supplies. "Temperatures will rise significantly," a local environmental specialist noted. "Even if paddy crops grow tall, grain yields could plummet. Community leaders, local authorities, and residents must implement systematic water management immediately." Agricultural advisors are urging farmers to harvest and store late-season rainwater, suspend heat-sensitive chemical fertilizers, and adopt drought-resilient crop management. The impending climate shock comes as thousands of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) across Rakhine State continue to recover from severe water shortages during the previous dry season. "Following last year's water crisis, communities dug new storage ponds across IDP camps," a resident of Ponnagyun Township said. "However, if we face extreme heat again, strong advance planning and systematic water conservation will be crucial to prevent severe humanitarian distress." The DMH added that El Niño presents dual risks for Myanmar, as periods of prolonged drought may be punctuated by sudden, localized flash flooding, requiring coordinated disaster preparedness across civil society and humanitarian sectors.