ASEAN's Neutrality Tested by South China Sea Disputes

ASEAN faces its toughest test balancing neutrality amid global disorder, particularly in the South China Sea. While its consensus-based diplomacy has maintained regional peace, China’s territorial pressure exposes critical weaknesses. Staying friendly with everyone fails when one party quietly encroaches, making silence increasingly insufficient. A Tested Approach | Strengths of Neutrality In 2025, the Philippines chairs ASEAN during one of its most demanding periods, as global disorder strains a region deeply dependent on trade and stability. From crisis management at the Cebu summit to maintaining friendly ties with Russia despite Western pressure, ASEAN demonstrates its defining characteristic: refusing to choose sides. This strategic neutrality has historically served the region well. By keeping ties open with all major powers, ASEAN secures energy, food, and security through multiple relationships rather than dependence on a single hegemon. Decades without interstate war stand as evidence that this approach delivers results. The South China Sea Challenge | Institutional Limitations However, ASEAN’s greatest strength becomes its most dangerous weakness when one party at the table is not merely talking but actively taking. Nowhere is this clearer than in the South China Sea. After over twenty years of negotiations, ASEAN and China have yet to agree on whether a Code of Conduct would even be legally binding. The Philippines, the most directly pressured member, exemplifies this dilemma — President Marcos Jr. advocates for binding rules yet expresses little confidence in achieving them. Staying neutral toward a party applying sustained pressure ultimately allows that pressure to continue unchallenged. Consensus as Constraint | A Call for Decisive Action ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making, while ensuring inclusivity, creates a structural paralysis precisely when firmness is most needed. Members with close ties to China effectively prevent any unified, assertive response to territorial encroachments. The result is a body capable of reaching agreements with Russia within days yet unable to produce a single binding sentence defending its own waters in years. China’s gradual territorial gains — never large enough to trigger war, yet sufficient to redraw boundaries — expose this vulnerability. Genuine regional security ultimately requires not just skillful diplomacy, but the institutional courage to firmly reject actions that threaten the foundations of the regional order itself. Source : ASEAN has to stand up to Beijing’s ambitions – Taipei Times