The Upper Region in Ashes – Why ASEAN’s Aid Plan May Fail

Myanmar's humanitarian situation has deteriorated to a point that is difficult to comprehend. More than 16.2 million people, nearly a third of the country's population, require urgent humanitarian assistance, and over 80 percent of the country is suffering from long-term poverty. The number of internally displaced persons has surged, from around 300,000 before the illegal coup attempt in 2021 to 3.8 million now, with a total of approximately 5.3 million people forcibly displaced nationwide and along the borders. However, due to the sheer magnitude of these nationwide statistics, regional situations, such as those in Myanmar's central upper region, the epicenter of the junta's most brutal atrocities, are easily overlooked. The situation in the "dry zone" of the upper region, which spans Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay regions, was clearly presented in a report published by the Myanmar human rights organization, Forward Voice, in 2022. In their newly released follow-up report for 2026, it is documented how the junta, desperately trying to crush the revolution, is intentionally setting fire to this "dry zone" to turn it into ashes. In Sagaing Region alone, there are 1.34 million internally displaced persons, which is over 35 percent of the total number of internally displaced persons nationwide, making Sagaing Region one of the areas with the largest number of displaced people. In Magway Region, there are nearly 300,000 displaced persons, making it the second-largest region. While the military's terror operations were haunting the people like a nightmare, a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 on the Richter scale struck central Myanmar in March 2025, causing the people to face immense suffering again. This earthquake killed over 3,700 people and caused 3.5 million tons of debris, and because the debris has not yet been cleared, major humanitarian aid routes remain blocked even in 2026. Systematic Famine and the "Four Cuts" Strategy Instead of allowing international aid agencies to enter and assist the terrified population, the junta has been aggressively expanding and implementing its "Four Cuts" strategy throughout the upper region. The "Four Cuts" strategy is a notorious strategy based on the concept of cutting off food, funds, and information to the people, and preventing the democratic revolutionary forces from recruiting new members. What is happening in Myanmar is not a conventional war. It is an operation systematically carried out by the junta to collectively punish the people. The military has intensified its terror operations, carrying out 2,165 airstrikes between January and November 2025, a significant increase compared to the 1,716 airstrikes conducted throughout 2024. The junta, which previously used sporadic bombing tactics, has now shifted to a strategy of concentrated aerial bombardment to systematically destroy schools, markets, and IDP camps. The military has also intentionally targeted health infrastructure, with records showing over 1,815 attacks targeting health facilities since the coup attempt, the worst of which was the attack that completely destroyed Myauk-U General Hospital in late 2025. Due to the scorched-earth military operation strategy, approximately 121,000 homes have been burned to ashes, and the food reserves of the people have also been burned and destroyed, and livestock have been killed. Furthermore, the use of internationally banned landmines has led to the proliferation of landmines in agricultural lands, making Myanmar one of the countries with the highest number of landmine casualties. A crucial point is that the junta is using humanitarian aid as a weapon of war. The junta's checkpoints have been blocking and confiscating essential items for survival such as food, medicine, and solar panels and water pumps. On the other hand, international funding has significantly decreased, leading to a reduction in the projected number of people to be assisted through the UN's 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan to 4.9 million, meaning that over 11 million vulnerable people will no longer receive international aid. A Dangerous Diplomatic Setback Amidst the junta's systematic creation of famine and the decrease in international aid, diplomatic responses from the international community remain absent. Most notably are the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its current chair, the Philippines. Philippine Foreign Minister and ASEAN Special Envoy to Myanmar, Teresa Lazaro, announced in mid-July that she would lead a pseudo-"humanitarian mission" to Myanmar in the last quarter of 2026. This announcement came after an informal meeting, which was of great concern, attended by the junta-appointed Foreign Minister, held in Thailand. The current diplomatic landscape is in complete contradiction to the commitments made by ASEAN in the past few months. At the ASEAN Summit in October 2025, ASEAN leaders reviewed and reaffirmed the Five-Point Consensus. Paragraph 25 of that decision explicitly calls for the implementation of safe, effective, and transparent humanitarian assistance, emphasizing the need to ensure that aid reaches internally displaced persons without discrimination, including through cross-border channels. Paragraph 25 of the decision highlights the aid routes that the junta is using as a weapon.