VP Impeachment Trial: Restrained Opening Week, But Senate Politics May Dictate Outcome

By Kaela Patricia B. Gabriel THE Senate impeachment court’s presiding officer and senator-judges have largely demonstrated impartiality during the opening week of Vice-President (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial, although analysts said the outcome remains unlikely to favor conviction given the Senate’s political makeup. “Some may have explicitly presented their points but overall, the whole impeachment process has not been hijacked by grandstanding,” Amr Solon S. Sison, a political science instructor at Far Eastern University, said via Facebook Messenger, describing presiding officer Senator Francis Joseph “Chiz” G. Escudero’s performance as “satisfactory.” He said the restraint shown by senator-judges does not necessarily improve the prosecution’s chances of securing the 16 votes needed to convict the Vice-President. “If we follow the current composition of the Senate political lines, the conviction of the VP is still unlikely,” he said. “The 16 votes is still unattainable. But this does not mean that getting the minimum threshold is impossible because we are still in the early stages of the impeachment trial.” Eric Daniel C. de Torres, a political science professor at the University of the East, said senators are still likely weighing the political implications of their decisions ahead of the 2028 presidential election. “At the end of the day, all considerations are but in accordance with the 2028 presidential elections,” he said via Messenger. Mr. Sison said both the prosecution and defense have used tactical maneuvers to shape the proceedings but have not significantly disrupted the trial. “It’s clear that some senator-judges have explicitly exposed their intent to guide the narrative towards a certain path, but the impeachment process has maintained its proper course,” he said. While Mr. de Torres praised Mr. Escudero’s handling of the proceedings, he questioned the decision to have him preside instead of Senate President Sherwin T. Gatchalian. “Bad optics on the part of Senator Gatchalian as Senate president,” he said. “As they decided to let Senator Escudero become the presiding officer, Senator Gatchalian should not have sat beside him.” Mr. Escudero was elected presiding officer on July 6 before the prosecution presented its witnesses, following amendments to the Senate’s impeachment rules. Before the election, Senate Minority Leader Alan Peter S. Cayetano questioned the rule changes, arguing that the Senate president should automatically preside over impeachment trials. Mr. de Torres added that if legal expertise was the primary consideration, Senator Francis Pancratius “Kiko” N. Pangilinan could also have been considered, although earlier political analysts noted that his association with the opposition could raise questions about neutrality. The impeachment court has spent its first week hearing the fourth article of impeachment, which centers on Ms. Duterte’s alleged death threats against President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., First Lady Marie Louise Araneta-Marcos and Leyte Rep. Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez. National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) Senior Agent John Mark Sta. Ana Calilung, who authenticated the videos containing the alleged threats, was the prosecution’s first witness and testified on July 7 and 8. The trial resumes on July 13 with NBI Regional Director Jeremy C. Lotoc scheduled to testify, followed by Zuleika T. Lopez, Ms. Duterte’s chief of staff.