Indonesia Secures Rice Stock Above 5.2 Million Tons Amid El Nino Threat

The National Food Agency (Bapanas) has confirmed that Indonesia's Government Rice Reserve (CBP) stock is in a robust condition to face the dry season and the threat of the El Nino phenomenon this year. The national rice reserve stock has surged significantly compared to previous El Nino periods. According to Bapanas data as of July 22, 2026, the government's rice stock managed by Perum Bulog has reached 5.24 million tons. This figure represents a substantial increase of 244.74 percent compared to the reserves before the peak of El Nino in September 2023, which stood at approximately 1.52 million tons. Head of Bapanas and Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman, reassured the public that there is no need to worry about rice availability during the dry season, given the current stock. The dry season typically requires around 3 million tons of rice, and with over 5.2 million tons in reserve, there is a surplus exceeding 2 million tons. The government's experience in managing food supplies during El Nino events in 2015, 2023, and 2024 is considered valuable capital for maintaining national food security. The abundance of national food stocks is also being utilized to maintain market price stability through two strategic government programs. The Food Supply and Price Stabilization (SPHP) Program has distributed 507,750 tons of SPHP rice as of July 22, 2026, out of a total target of 828,000 tons for the March-December 2026 period. Additionally, starting in August 2026, the government, through Perum Bulog, will distribute 997,200 tons of food assistance in one go for the July-September allocation, benefiting 33.24 million Beneficiary Families (KPM). These intervention measures have proven effective in suppressing inflation. Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that annual rice inflation (year-on-year) in June 2026 decreased to 3.98 percent, down from 4.55 percent in May 2026. On a monthly basis, rice inflation was 0.45 percent, indicating a well-controlled situation. The strengthening of food stocks is critical in light of warnings from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The BMKG predicts that the peak of the 2026 dry season will occur from July to September, with the most significant impact expected in August, affecting 48.84 percent of Indonesian land. This year's dry season is anticipated to be drier and longer, with the El Nino phenomenon having a 98 percent chance of lasting until early 2027 with moderate intensity and a 62 percent chance of strong intensity.