Military lacks capacity and strength to confront AA, resorting to aerial bombing and killing civilians

Ayeyarwaddy Times July 21 The military council government has lost its ability to control the offensive capabilities of the Arakan Army (AA), which has expanded its operational areas not only within Rakhine State but also into three adjacent states and the strategic stronghold of Sagaing Region, it has been learned. According to military analysts, the Arakan Army (AA) has an estimated minimum of 40,000 fighters, according to a US-based research group, and the current number could be significantly higher. In terms of military strategy, an attacking force needs approximately three times the troop strength of a defensive force. Therefore, the military council government would require at least 120,000 troops to counter the AA. However, the military is currently struggling to allocate approximately 150,000 troops nationwide. Major Zin Yaw of the CDM (Civil Disobedience Movement) commented on the military council government's military situation, stating, "Even with a nationwide ceasefire, it is almost certain that the military will no longer have the capacity to confront the AA and its allied forces." A military analyst told the Ayeyarwaddy Times, "The military leader's 100-day plan has yielded nothing despite his grand pronouncements. Whether you call it sour grapes or a desperate act, they are resorting to their old tactics of 'If you don't stop, we'll kill your civilians.' They don't care about civilians; they only see them as hostages." The AA has extensive combat experience, having engaged many of the military's elite shock troops between 2015 and 2020. Since 2023, they have been able to capture regional commands in their urban offensives. Furthermore, AA Chief of Staff General Tun Myat Naing himself has declared his intention to achieve a "final victory" in Rakhine State by the end of 2027, indicating a military objective to fully seize the remaining towns in Rakhine State. Currently, the AA has captured 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State and is posing a close military threat to two of the remaining three townships. Additionally, in battles along the Mandalay-Myitkyina road, where the AA is participating in Sagaing Region, the military has been forced to abandon its bases and retreat. Facing these ground defeats, the military launched extensive aerial attacks from July 13th onwards, dropping numerous bombs from formations of aircraft, including fighter jets and Y-12s, on the townships of Gwa, Mae, Sandoway, Ponnagyun, and Pauktaw in Rakhine State. These attacks resulted in the deaths and injuries of approximately three dozen civilians, including monks and children. The AA has issued a statement indicating that the military's actions raise questions about the sincerity of their calls for peace and dialogues within 100 days, and that the AA will respond to the military council government's offensives in collaboration with allied organizations and the people. Photo: AA Info Desk