Rebuffing the junta: Europe must seriously engage with the Myanmar resistance

Mizzima Commentary Putting a face on the Myanmar resistance is a tough call. There are a myriad names – from exiled Myanmar politicians to People’s Defence Force fighters to ethnic armed organization commanders. Yet there is no recognizable Che Guevara, Mao Zedong or Ahmad Shah Massoud. Aung San Suu Kyi is a symbol of freedom, for sure, but she remains unseen, and contrary to the Myanmar resistance’s call for war, analysts assume she still takes Mahatma Gandhi’s pacifist line. This prompts the question: When European diplomats and government leaders seek to engage with the Myanmar resistance, who should they deal with? This dilemma is becoming more and more obvious as Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s battle for legitimacy intensifies, and amidst the moves of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to edge cautiously towards a deal. The Myanmar civil war is Asia’s deadliest conflict, sparked by Min Aung Hlaing’s military coup in 2021 – and any amount of posturing cannot deflect from the fact that he is responsiblefor the bloodshed. THE GAMES THE LEADER PLAYS While the former commander-in-chief of the Myanmar armed forces has been called a lot of names – one thing is for certain, he is shrewd. Since engineering his way into the role of “president” following a “sham election” held six months ago, Min Aung Hlaing has changed his clothes from green to white and is seeking regional and international legitimacy. His recent high-profile visits to India and China have helped cement his position. And last weekend, ASEAN’s acceptance of his foreign minister, Tim Maung Swe, at an “informal” foreign ministers meeting in Bangkok appeared to provide one further step by the junta towards returning to the fold. But not so fast. ASEAN is torn between a more pragmatic approach to the Myanmar junta and keeping the doors locked. As Ma Theresa Lazaro, Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on Myanmar, explained, in the talks with the Myanmar foreign minister they were able to have “candid and constructive discussion on implementing the 5-Point Consensus and how ASEAN may assist Myanmar in normalizing its relations with ASEAN.” This meeting is significant as this is the first time that ASEAN Foreign Ministers had an in-person engagement with the Myanmar counterpart since 2021, as mandated by the Leaders during the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, reports the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs. “The Special Envoy reiterated that Myanmar remains an integral part of ASEAN.” On 13 July, the Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on Myanmar engaged with Myanmar ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), as well as representatives of the junta-aligned National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) to discuss the way forward on the inclusive national political dialogue between and among parties in Myanmar. All sides expressed openness to the dialogue process and emphasized the importance of constructive dialogue and ensuring careful preparation of all parties involved, reports the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs. Lazaro went on to hold online talks with the National Unity Government (NUG). An official from an NUG ministry told Mizzima: “We met online very briefly. She did not raise anything significant. The NUG conveyed its stance in accordance with our official statements.” The opposition Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF) has been at pains to point out that this recent meeting with ASEAN representatives does not signal the commencement of formal political dialogue or negotiations with the military junta. The statement clarified that SCEF members held a private discussion solely at the invitation of the ASEAN Special Envoy, the Philippine Foreign Minister, and the Thai Foreign Minister, and did not meet jointly with junta representatives. During the meeting, the SCEF emphasized to ASEAN representatives that the ground realities in Myanmar have fundamentally shifted. “Governance in Myanmar is no longer centralized in Naypyidaw. In vast areas of the country, local revolutionary authorities have assumed executive, judicial, and public security responsibilities on a state and unit-by-unit basis,” the SCEF stated. Consequently, the SCEF warned ASEAN that any peace process must recognize and engage these legitimate ground authorities, cautioning that premature attempts to normalize relations will only worsen the current crisis. Don’t ignore the representatives of the Spring Revolution. THE DILEMMA So how should the European states handle the Myanmar crisis, given a moment of strategic reckoning on Myanmar appears to be upon us, if international analysts are to be believed?