
Peasant group urges gov't to act urgently as 'super' El Niño looms
A national peasant organization in the Philippines has urged the government to take immediate action as forecasts indicate El Niño could intensify to "super" levels and persist until early 2027, warning of potential crop failures and worsening food insecurity.
LUCENA CITY – A national peasant organization on Monday urged the government to take immediate action as forecasts indicate that El Niño could intensify to very strong levels and persist until early 2027. “The latest El Niño forecast should serve as a serious wake-up call for the government,” the Kilusan Para sa Tunay na Repormang Agraryo at Katarungang Panlipunan (Katarungan) said in a statement. “For millions of small-scale farmers, this is not simply a weather forecast—it is a warning of another season of potential crop failures, lost incomes, worsening food insecurity, and the further erosion of rural livelihoods,” the group added. READ: Pagasa: Over 60% chance of El Niño intensifying from August onwards According to Katarungan, the climate crisis is no longer a future threat; rather, “it is a present reality that farmers confront every planting season.” Last week, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said there is now more than a 60 percent probability that El Niño conditions will intensify during the latter part of the year. Ana Liza Solis, chief of Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said the warming episode could peak in the first quarter of 2027. El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean that affect weather conditions in many countries, including the Philippines. It often brings below-normal rainfall across much of the country, increasing the likelihood of dry spells and drought. In anticipation of the weather phenomenon, the Marcos administration has been accelerating investments in irrigation and water management projects to help farmers cope with drought and improve resilience to climate-related disasters. READ: Don’t dismiss El Niño impact, Speaker Dy tells execs The government is also promoting drought-resistant, less water-intensive crops and encouraging the use of climate-adaptive technologies such as solar-powered irrigation pumps and water recycling systems in drought-prone areas. Katarungan welcomed the government’s recognition of the looming El Niño threat and its commitment to strengthening irrigation systems, promoting climate-resilient farming, and preparing the country’s food and water sectors. “These initiatives are necessary, especially in light of the devastating impacts of the 2023-2024 El Niño, which caused billions of pesos in agricultural losses,” the group said. However, it stressed that preparedness should extend beyond infrastructure projects and policy announcements. READ: Gov’t boosting climate-resilient farming amid El Niño threat – Marcos “The true measure of preparedness is whether support reaches small-scale farmers before crops fail, livelihoods are lost, and food prices rise,” the group said. Danny Carranza, Katarungan secretary general, said that despite government advisories, many farmers have inadequate irrigation, limited access to climate-resilient technologies, and insufficient financial assistance. “Every severe El Niño means reduced harvests, dried-up farmlands, livestock losses, mounting debts, and rising food prices,” Carranza said in a phone interview. He also said the continued liberalization of agricultural trade, coupled with recurring extreme weather events, exposes the country’s long-standing failure to build a resilient and self-reliant agricultural sector. According to Carranza, government responses have remained largely reactive rather than preventive, forcing farmers to shoulder the costs of a crisis they did not create. “Protecting farmers today is the most effective way to protect the nation’s food supply tomorrow,” he said. Katarungan called on the government to improve irrigation and community water management systems, provide climate-resilient seeds and planting materials, expand production subsidies, emergency financial assistance, and crop insurance, invest in sustainable farming practices, and strengthen support for local food production and Filipino farmers. Carranza said preparing for El Niño is not merely about responding to an impending drought. “It is about protecting people’s right to food and farmers’ right to a secure livelihood,” he said. Without decisive government action, he warned, the consequences will extend beyond the country’s farms and affect the nation’s food supply, economy, and overall stability. “Food sovereignty begins with the capacity of Filipino farmers to feed the nation. If the government fails to protect those who produce the country’s food, the entire nation will bear the consequences,” Carranza said./coa
多角的分析
エルニーニョ現象の深刻化は、フィリピン経済の根幹をなす農業セクターに壊滅的な影響を与える。収穫量の減少は食料価格の上昇を招き、インフレ圧力を高める。これは、特に低所得層の購買力を低下させ、消費を抑制する可能性がある。また、農業関連産業、例えば食品加工業や農産物輸出にも打撃を与え、経済成長を鈍化させる要因となりうる。政府のインフラ投資や支援策は、これらの経済的損失を緩和する上で不可欠だが、その効果は迅速かつ広範に農家へ届くかどうかにかかっている。過去のエルニーニョ被害額(数十億ペソ)は、経済への潜在的リスクの大きさを物語っている。
エルニーニョの長期化と深刻化は、フィリピンの農業関連企業、特に食品加工、小売、輸出業者にとって直接的なリスクとなる。サプライチェーンの寸断や原料価格の高騰は、収益性を圧迫する可能性がある。一方で、干ばつに強い作物の種子や、水管理技術、再生可能エネルギーを利用した灌漑システムなどの分野への投資機会も生まれる。投資家は、気候変動への適応能力が高い企業や、政府のインフラ投資計画から恩恵を受ける可能性のある企業を慎重に見極める必要がある。また、食料価格の上昇は、消費財セクター全体に影響を与えるため、マクロ経済の動向も注視する必要がある。
エルニーニョの深刻化は、フィリピンの小規模農家とその家族の生活を直接的に脅かす。収穫の失敗は収入の途絶を意味し、借金、食料不足、そして都市部への移住を余儀なくされる人々が増加する可能性がある。特に、地方のコミュニティでは、農業が主要な生計手段であるため、その影響は甚大だ。食料価格の上昇は、都市部の貧困層にも大きな負担となり、社会的な不安定さを増大させる恐れがある。カタルンガンの主張は、単なる経済的損失にとどまらず、人々の「食料への権利」と「安全な生計への権利」という、より根本的な社会課題に焦点を当てている。
今回のエルニーニョ予報は、マニラ首都圏に住む市民にとっても無関係ではない。食料価格の上昇は、日々の生活費を圧迫する直接的な要因となる。特に、野菜や米などの主食の価格変動は、家計に大きな影響を与える。また、農村部からの食料供給が滞れば、食料の入手自体が困難になる可能性も考えられる。政府が、農家への支援策を迅速かつ効果的に実施し、食料供給網を安定させることが、市民生活の安定に不可欠となる。地方で農業を営む家族を持つ市民にとっては、遠く離れた家族の生計への不安も募るだろう。
背景・歴史的文脈
フィリピンは、太平洋の「火の輪」に位置し、台風やエルニーニョ・ラニーニャ現象といった極端な気象現象の影響を受けやすい地理的条件にある。特にエルニーニョは、国内の広範囲で降雨不足を引き起こし、農業生産に深刻な打撃を与えてきた。2023年から2024年にかけてのエルニーニョは、既に数十億ペソの農業損失をもたらしたと報じられており、今回の「スーパー」エルニーニョへの懸念は、過去の経験に基づいた危機感の表れである。長年にわたり、フィリピン政府は農業セクターの近代化と気候変動への適応策を進めてきたが、依然として小規模農家の脆弱性は高く、インフラ整備や技術普及、財政支援の面で課題が残っている。
原文ソース
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