Thai Rice Exports Down 18.8% to 3.28 Million Tons in First Half; El Niño Expected to Boost Demand

Thai rice exports in the first half of this year (January-June 2026) reached only 3.28 million tons, marking a significant decrease of 18.8% compared to the same period last year. Multiple factors are believed to be contributing to this decline in exports. However, there is a growing perspective that the impact of El Niño, an international weather phenomenon, will significantly affect future rice demand. El Niño can cause abnormal weather patterns worldwide, potentially impacting food production. In particular, both extreme reactions such as buying hesitancy due to supply concerns and, conversely, a surge in demand are expected in major rice-consuming and producing countries. Thailand is one of the world's leading rice exporters, and its export trends influence the international food market. This export reduction may indicate changes in Thailand's domestic production situation or its competitiveness in the international market. Continued attention is needed to observe how the future impact of El Niño will affect Thai rice production and how that will be reflected in export volumes.