Philippine Hog Industry Disputes USDA Pork Production Forecast

The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) projection for Philippine pork production of 1.06 million metric tons (MMT) in 2027 is too low, according to the National Federation of Hog Raisers. The federation estimates the actual total should be closer to 1.32 MMT, based on an 80% carcass recovery assumption applied to the Philippine Department of Agriculture’s estimate of the hog population at 1.65 MMT. Federation Chairman Alfred Ng stated that pork imports should be relied upon to bridge the gap between domestic supply and demand. He noted that last year's pork imports reached 910 million kilograms, a figure he believes should actually be under 500 million kilograms. "This is why liveweight prices continue to be below production costs and most farmers, especially backyard farmers, are suffering a lot," Mr. Ng told BusinessWorld. The USDA projection anticipates a 4.4% increase over its revised 2026 estimate, supported by government-led swine repopulation efforts, sustained biosecurity measures, and improved swine genetics and animal nutrition. However, the USDA cautioned that these gains could be partially offset by the potential impact of El Niño, expected by the end of 2026. Furthermore, the USDA forecasts pork consumption to jump 6.4% in 2027 to 1.9 MMT from an estimated 1.8 MMT this year, with pork imports projected to rise 7.1% to 835,000 MMT in 2027.