World Bank Cuts Philippine Growth Forecast Amid Oil Shock, Uncertainty

The World Bank has lowered its growth forecasts for the Philippines this year and in 2027, saying prolonged policy uncertainty and a spike in global oil prices have weighed on consumer spending, investment and employment. In its latest Philippine Economic Update released Monday, the Washington-based lender projected gross domestic product to grow 3.7 percent in 2026, down from the 5.3 percent forecast it issued in December. It also trimmed its 2027 growth estimate to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent previously. “Two factors help to explain a recent growth deceleration. The first is a contraction in investment, driven by rising global and domestic policy uncertainty and a review of public infrastructure launched in mid-2025 that has temporarily slowed project execution,” the bank said. “The second is the current conflict in the Middle East, which produced a negative terms-of-trade shock, with a surge in global oil prices feeding through rapidly to domestic prices and further weakening economic activity,” it added.