Myanmar Situation – State of Control

Photo – President Xi Jinping welcomes and meets with military leader Min Aung Hlaing in Beijing, China. This reflects that despite ongoing conflicts in Myanmar, regional countries are striving to protect strategically important interests. (Lintao Zhang / Reuters) Regional countries are rebuilding ties with the Myanmar military junta to secure strategically important transportation routes. However, many of these routes pass through areas controlled or contested by ethnic armed organizations and revolutionary forces. Five years after the coup, over 100,000 people have died due to Myanmar's civil war, according to ACLED, which monitors armed conflicts. The military general who initiated the war is now wearing civilian clothes instead of a military uniform. Neighboring countries are also responding by adapting to this change. India received coup leader Min Aung Hlaing for his first foreign trip as president in May, while China welcomed him on a five-day state visit in June. In early July, Min Aung Hlaing received a state-level welcome in Laos as his first presidential visit to an ASEAN member state. Later in July, ASEAN foreign ministers met with the junta's foreign minister. Subsequently, ASEAN's special envoy to Myanmar met separately with ethnic armed organizations and the junta's coordination committee in Thailand. On the surface, Myanmar appears to be heading towards normal economic relations with regional countries. However, a closer look reveals a more peculiar situation. Regional powers are negotiating for roads, oil and gas pipelines, and border crossings that the junta can no longer secure. This contradictory situation was evident in July. At that time, Min Aung Hlaing pledged to finalize the implementation of India's Kaladan project route, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. The Kaladan project aims to connect India's landlocked northeastern region with the Bay of Bengal. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway will connect India and Thailand through Myanmar, and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor will connect China's Yunnan Province with the Indian Ocean. However, Min Aung Hlaing told ministers that construction would only begin once security conditions along the routes stabilized. In reality, security is not an additional consideration for these projects but the determining factor for their success. Limitations of Formal Authority "It is always difficult to assess territorial control in Myanmar," said Thomas King of the International Crisis Group. While the military continues to control major cities and some key highways, the situation with trade routes is different. "Most of Myanmar's border areas adjacent to Bangladesh, India, China, Laos, and Thailand are controlled by ethnic armed organizations," and these groups "tend to have a firm grip on important trade routes and many border crossings," King stated. Significant portions of the oil and gas pipeline from Kyaukphyu to Kunming, China, pass through areas controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The military has tried to regain control of the Mandalay-Lashio road to China and the Kawkareik-Myawaddy road to Thailand, but armed groups continue to control parts of these routes, preventing official border trade from resuming, King said. Aung Thura Nyein, a director at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar), described the war as a "strategic stalemate." While the junta's forces have recruited new soldiers and recaptured some territory, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and revolutionary forces continue to control approximately 38 percent of Myanmar's territory, according to ISP-Myanmar. "It remains extremely difficult to completely eliminate EAOs and revolutionary forces," Aung Thura Nyein said. He predicted that "guerrilla warfare, small-scale attacks, and protracted attrition battles" could continue, while there might also be "coercive pressures" to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Currently, the state continues to control ministries, the central bank, the air force, and major cities. Aung Thura Nyein calls these "advantages held by the current authority." However, having formal authority and securely controlling territory are different. "Even if the military regains control of a route, it is not difficult for ethnic armed organizations to launch attacks to disrupt traffic," said Thomas King. Who Controls Key Routes Rakhine State most clearly illustrates the new geographical landscape. The Arakan Army (AA) controls about 90 percent of Rakhine State, with the military retaining control of only three areas: Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung, according to Thomas King's estimates. Kyaukphyu is the main location for China's oil and gas pipelines and a planned deep-sea port project. Sittwe is the maritime terminus for India's Kaladan project. Thomas King commented, "The Arakan Army has not yet been able to expel the military from these locations, and Naypyidaw is unlikely to regain the lost territories." Intense fighting is primarily occurring along the routes entering Rakhine State.