Super El Niño Threatens Southeast Asian Livelihoods, Including Vietnam

Super El Niño Threatens Southeast Asian Livelihoods A super El Niño event, with a high probability of reaching very strong intensity from October to December, is poised to disrupt water resources, food security, electricity, and the livelihoods of millions across Southeast Asia. The phenomenon, developing in the Pacific, is expected to exacerbate drier conditions in the region. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, there is a 98% chance of a "super El Niño" developing between October and December. The likelihood of this period experiencing the most severe El Niño since 1950 is estimated at 75%. If it develops into a "super El Niño," it could worsen droughts, impacting agricultural production and food supply, as reported by Channel News Asia on September 17. In Indonesia, drought had affected approximately 30,400 hectares of rice fields by mid-July. The country's palm oil output could decrease by nearly 2 million tons by 2027 due to dry weather and high fertilizer costs. Farmers in Thailand are concerned about their inability to plant crops if reservoirs run dry, despite Thailand being one of the world's largest exporters of rice and sugar. Reduced food supply could lead to higher food prices, while increased demand for air conditioning will strain electricity bills. A kindergarten in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, reported a 50% surge in its electricity costs compared to the beginning of the year. El Niño can weaken monsoons, affecting wind power, and reduce hydropower output due to drought. In Vietnam, hydropower accounts for about 30% of the country's energy production. During a previous super El Niño event, water resources in some river systems decreased by up to 60%, forcing some hydropower plants to cease operations when water flow and reservoir levels dropped too low. Power shortages could extend to industrial production, impacting the garment industry. Laos, a power exporter to Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore, might also reduce its supply if hydropower is affected. Increased energy costs will put pressure on the prices of manufactured goods. Prolonged heatwaves can also alter tourism activities and increase the risk of forest fires and haze. The El Niño events of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 caused severe haze in Southeast Asia. Children, the elderly, and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures. In Indonesia, seaweed farmers are facing difficulties due to warming sea temperatures. Climate experts note that El Niño's impacts are not uniform. The 2015-2016 super El Niño caused droughts, floods, crop failures, and other consequences, affecting at least 60 million people globally and causing an estimated economic loss of $3.9 trillion USD. Southeast Asian governments are managing reservoirs, improving irrigation, distributing water pumps, encouraging drought-resistant crops, and strengthening forest fire prevention to cope with El Niño. Professor Erma Yulihastin, a climate professor at Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency, calls for early action and preparation for the next two years to prevent cascading impacts. Experts also suggest developing water allocation plans among urban dwellers, hospitals, agriculture, industry, and tourism if rainfall is insufficient to replenish reservoirs. Attention must also be paid to ensure that rapidly growing data centers in the region do not compete for water resources with local communities and farmers. Low-income groups dependent on agriculture and self-sufficiency are particularly vulnerable to weather impacts and income loss and require careful consideration. The global average temperature in August reached 16.96 degrees Celsius, and sea surface temperatures from 60 degrees South to 60 degrees North also set records. Source: The Saigon Times