Buddhism's future and China-India rivalry

Photo-Monks walk near the Sangha building inside the Juto Tantric Buddhist monastery in Dhamma Sala. Bloomberg Lumbini Garden in southern Nepal, the birthplace of the Buddha, is known for its simple, peaceful, and rural tranquility. The neat gardens and reflective ponds evoke the profound stillness experienced by a prince who left his palace to initiate a spiritual movement that would transform Asia some 2,500 years ago. In the mornings, the chanting and ringing of bells from over 20 monasteries create an atmosphere of a spiritual retreat that has long attracted Western travelers. However, unlike Rome and Mecca, which attract millions of visitors annually, Lumbini remains a developing pilgrimage center, drawing only about a million travelers a year due to poor transportation links and regional political instability. Almost all travelers are local pilgrims from Nepal and neighboring India. But the site is becoming the center of a fierce geopolitical rivalry between two major powers vying for control over the future of Buddhism. China, officially an atheist state, has spent billions of dollars in the past decade on temples, universities, relic diplomacy, and reciprocal exchanges of monks to expand its state-managed form of Buddhism. This push by China, partly driven by a desire to tighten its control over the historically restive Tibet and its future leadership, has caused concern in New Delhi and Washington. They view the move as a broader soft power play designed to undermine India's advantage as the traditional homeland of Buddhism. There can be no greater challenge than the contest to control the succession of the Dalai Lama, who will turn 91 on July 6. The Tibetan Buddhist leader fled Tibet after a popular uprising against Chinese Communist rule in 1959 and found refuge in India. If China appoints one Dalai Lama and exiled leaders choose another, the resulting succession deadlock would effectively split Tibetan Buddhism and divide loyalties within a powerful sect of a religion with 500 million adherents worldwide. That rivalry spilled over into Lumbini in 2024. Gyaincain Norbu, the Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama, was invited by Lhakirel Lama, who until recently was responsible for leading the pilgrimage management committee. The Panchen Lama is the second-highest-ranking figure in Tibetan Buddhism. After a six-year-old boy chosen by the Dalai Lama in the 1990s went missing, the Chinese Communist Party appointed Norbu to replace him. Since then, Norbu has been ignored and shunned by Tibetan Buddhists and Westerners. Indian and American diplomats "strongly pressured" the visit to be canceled, fearing that it would further solidify China's authority in determining the next Dalai Lama, said Lhakirel Lama, who is also a former Nepalese government minister. "They directly opposed me. What is the problem with him coming to Lumbini? Isn't he also a Buddhist?" Lhakirel Lama, dressed in saffron robes and seated behind a table, said in a face-to-face interview conducted in his former office at the Lumbini Development Trust in March. The office is located within walking distance of the sacred Buddhist site. Ultimately, the visit was postponed, but Nepal continued to receive substantial funds from the government of President Xi Jinping. Chinese contractors recently built an international airport there, aiming to attract more tourists to the site. Organizations close to the Chinese government are supporting a $2 billion expansion project at Lumbini Buddhist University that will include research centers, hotels, and its own hydroelectric power line, said Subarna Lal Bajracharya, the vice chancellor. The plan also includes a drone assembly and manufacturing program, intended to transform the region into a technology and manufacturing hub, in non-religious endeavors. "We continue to urge China to stop its attempts to manipulate the succession of the Dalai Lama," a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State said. However, the State Department did not respond to Lhakirel's comments regarding the canceled visit. India, calling the Buddha their "most precious jewel," has recently strengthened its claim over Buddhism, and has long sought to portray the Buddha's birthplace, his first sermon, and his final resting place as a Buddhist cultural heritage. Although Prime Minister Modi has prioritized Hindu nationalist agendas during his tenure, he has recently invested heavily in upgrading Buddhist pilgrimage sites related to the Buddha's life to attract tourists and has transported relics across Asia for veneration. In Lumbini, a short drive from the Indian border, India is building a cultural center with a $10 million donation within a mile of the Chinese-backed Lumbini Buddhist University. However, the scale of the construction still differs. "We have a rivalry between India and China in Lumbini. China seems to be winning," said Ajay Bhadra Khanal, who served as an advisor to the caretaker government of former Nepalese Prime Minister Sushila Koirala. Lhakirel Lama's past tenure also reflects China's diplomatic success. His appointment as Nepal's deputy finance minister in 2011 was seen as support for the Tibetan independence movement by China