Central Asia Faces Fuel Crisis as Russia Tightens Exports; Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Hit Hardest

Read The Diplomat, Know The Asia-Pacific With Ukrainian drone attacks putting the pinch on Russia’s oil industry, the Central Asian region faces a fuel crisis too. Several Central Asian governments have had to implement emergency fuel management measures in recent days amid a worsening regional fuel crisis prompted by Russia’s July 8 ban on diesel exports, and ongoing disruptions to its refining sector caused by Ukraine’s escalating drone campaign. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are facing an especially bad supply crunch due to their near-total dependence on petroleum product imports from Russia, but other Central Asian governments are also being affected, with fuel prices rising across the entire region in recent weeks. Moscow typically exempts petroleum product deliveries made to Central Asia from export restrictions under intergovernmental agreements within the auspices of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), allowing fuel supplies to continue reaching the region even during domestic shortages or refining disruptions. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are both members of the EAEU, alongside Armenia, Belarus, and Russia. But due to Ukraine’s incessant attacks on both Black Sea energy infrastructure and harder-to-reach refining facilities as far inland as the Urals, the sheer amount of damage caused has raised serious questions about Russia’s ability to continue to honor these agreements. Operations are currently halted at several of the country’s primary oil refineries, including the Omsk refinery in western Siberia, the country’s largest oil processing facility and an important export hub for Central Asia. According to Reuters, Russia’s gasoline output is able to meet less than two-thirds of domestic demand at present, and the sight of motorists waiting for hours, and, in some regions, days, is now increasingly common across the country. For the Central Asian countries, it appears that the most serious effects of this situation will be felt when it comes to supplies of jet fuel and gasoline. Last month, exports of these products from Russia to the region fell by more than 92 percent and 34 percent, respectively, Reuters reported on July 13. Russian diesel production, meanwhile, is also well below historic markers. According to data from intelligence firm ⁠Kpler, the country’s export figures averaged just 214,000 barrels per day (BPD) during the first week of July, compared to much higher rates of 793,000 BPD in July 2025, and 842,000 BPD ​in July 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As things stand, Kyrgyzstan is likely to be the Central Asian country most seriously affected by the regional fuel crisis. Russian imports historically accounted for some 95 percent of Kyrgyz petroleum products. Due to Russia’s ongoing fuel shortages, Bishkek had already implemented a gasoline price freeze and fuel subsidies through September 30. On July 14, Kyrgyzstan’s government announced that it was banning fuel exports “until ​such time as the domestic market is saturated.” In addition to this indefinite ban, Kyrgyzstan also said at the start of July that it would try to obtain fuel from alternative sources, including from China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, although it is unclear to what extent these or other partners will be able to shore up the situation. Based on figures from newly signed agreements, Bishkek is reportedly set to receive a combined 6,000 tons of jet fuel and 10,000 tons of diesel from Belarus and China, with negotiations underway to receive an additional 5,000 tons of diesel fuel from Beijing. But this is a far cry from the 235,000 tons of diesel and 48,000 tons of jet fuel that it received from Russia from January to May, even before the surge of seasonal demand for both products. Air travel typically increases during the warmer summer months, and similarly diesel consumption rises during the late summer and autumn harvests. In Tajikistan, meanwhile, the situation is also similarly dire, with several regions currently experiencing diesel shortages and high prices at the pump forcing some public buses off the road in the country’s second city of Khujand, RFE/RL’s Tajik Service, Ozodi, reported. Last week, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Energy announced that it had accumulated a reserve of up to 60 days’ worth of fuel, but with gasoline and diesel prices up from their historical averages by 13 percent and 21 percent, respectively, Dushanbe is also reportedly negotiating with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan over fuel purchases. Kazakhstan, for its part, has only so far responded publicly to Kyrgyzstan’s request, though the government’s signaling thus far does not suggest that it is prepared to rush to the aid of its neighbors at the expense of its own energy security. According to local media outlet Kursiv, Deputy Energy Minister Kairykhan Tutkyshbayev did say on July 7 that the country was considering Kyrgyzstan’s request, but that news came amid the government’s bigger announcement that day: that it would renew a fuel export ban that has prevented the country’s gasoline from being sold abroad for years. Kazakhstan’s priority is maintaining “the full and uninterrupted supply of the domestic market,” as the Energy Ministry recently said in response to rumors that Russia had requested a one-off fuel shipment. The same rationale appears to also be behind last week’s decision to establish nearly 60 new border checkpoints to stop Russian motorists from crossing into the country for cheaper fuel. The problem is that Astana itself is not invulnerable to a fuel crunch. When it comes to diesel, for example, Kazakhstan is going into the second half of 2026 with a fragile balance. According to analysis by Teniz Capital Investment Banking, scheduled maintenance at the country’s northern Pavlodar refinery from September 18 to October 17 is due to coincide with the peak of its grain harvest, meaning it will need to increase stockpiles where possible over the summer. The situation is little better when it comes to jet fuel, with Astana itself facing a shortage over the summer due to rising demand, several weeks of maintenance at the Atyrau oil refinery from late June to early July, ⁠and ​lower imports from Russia. Beyond the region, meanwhile, the collapse of the tenuous ceasefire between Iran and the United States will make it harder for Central Asian countries to find fuel-supplying friends abroad. China, in particular, imposed export restrictions on oil products in early March following the outbreak of war between Tehran and Washington, and, with the International Energy Agency warning of a renewed gasoline and diesel supply crunch following the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, Beijing is unlikely to be able to fill much more of the slack from Russia’s diminished exports. Subscribe today and join thousands of diplomats, analysts, policy professionals and business readers who rely on The Diplomat for expert Asia-Pacific coverage. Get unlimi