India's High-Stakes Gamble in the SCO

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is marking its 25th anniversary, but doubts linger over its effectiveness due to the conflicting geopolitical and economic interests of its member states. India views the SCO as a crucial multilateral forum for deepening ties with Central Asian nations and enhancing its regional presence. However, internal contradictions within the organization are currently undermining its potential. Various levels of meetings are being held within the SCO, including those of culture ministers, defense ministers, and foreign ministers. The foreign ministers' meeting, in particular, is considered vital for preparing the ground for the leadership summit scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan in late August and early September. Nevertheless, the SCO has struggled to achieve concrete results, with notable disagreements among member states on objectives such as "jointly combating terrorism" and "jointly searching for solutions to 21st-century problems." The India-Pakistan rivalry has cast a long shadow over the SCO's functioning for years. Furthermore, disagreements between India and China regarding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) also hinder the organization's cooperation. India is increasingly concerned that the nexus between China and Pakistan will be further strengthened within the SCO, especially as the organization's chairmanship passes from Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan next year. With the wars in Ukraine and Iran impacting the global economy, the SCO is being called upon to take a stance on these issues. However, despite having parties to these conflicts as members, such as Russia and Iran, no significant progress has been made. This reflects a common challenge faced by many multilateral organizations, highlighting the difficulty member states have in balancing their national interests with the organization's overall goals. While there are calls within India for withdrawal from the SCO, the Indian government recognizes its strategic value in facilitating relations with Central Asian countries, bridging to Afghanistan, and engaging in regional trade and connectivity projects. Additionally, measures against terrorism, separatism, extremism, and radicalization through the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) help India mainstream its approaches on these matters on the international stage. However, as the SCO rarely takes a common stand, India must continue advocating for robust mechanisms to combat cross-border terrorism and extremism, as well as for fair trade.