Bangkok Seeks to Lead ASEAN's Myanmar Re-engagement: Implications for Vietnam?

Thailand's push to spearhead the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) re-engagement with Myanmar may usher in a new phase for regional dynamics. This move could not only impact ASEAN's unity and the nature of regional cooperation but also indirectly influence Vietnam's foreign policy. Since the military coup in Myanmar in 2021, ASEAN has adopted a firm stance, imposing sanctions and restricting participation in some meetings. However, Thailand advocates for ASEAN to contribute to Myanmar's stabilization through more constructive engagement and aims to promote this approach across ASEAN. As a member of ASEAN, Vietnam's response to this Thai-led initiative will be closely watched. Vietnam, while traditionally emphasizing ASEAN's principle of "non-interference in internal affairs," is concerned about the deterioration of the situation in Myanmar for the sake of overall regional stability and security. Whether Thailand's proposal can gain ASEAN consensus, and how it will affect Vietnam's policy towards Myanmar and its broader relationship with China, will be key focal points going forward. Notably, China is increasing its influence in Myanmar, and how ASEAN's response intersects with China's intentions will also need to be observed. Vietnam will be required to explore a foreign policy strategy that maximizes its national interests, considering the dual factors of Thailand's leadership within ASEAN and the expanding influence of China in the region.