Pheu Thai Departure from Bhumjaithai-led Govt Highly Unlikely Amid Thaksin's Legal Risks

The Pheu Thai party, the second largest coalition partner in Thailand, is highly unlikely to break ranks with the Bhumjaithai party, which currently forms the core of the coalition government. This assessment comes from partisan sources who believe the de facto leaders of both camps, Thaksin Shinawatra for Pheu Thai and Newin Chidchob for Bhumjaithai, are influencing the situation behind the scenes. Sources suggest that the ultra-conservative Bhumjaithai party is facing relentless attacks over alleged misconduct and fraud involving prominent party figures and high-ranking government personnel under their command. In this context, the neo-conservative Pheu Thai might be tempted to part ways with Newin’s camp and form an alliance with the ultra-conservative Klatham party, led by former agriculture and cooperatives minister Thammanat Prompao. This scenario could be seen as Thaksin orchestrating his own political maneuver. However, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is not expected to step down, which would pave the way for a possible Pheu Thai-led coalition government to replace the current Bhumjaithai-led administration. This is especially true given that Thaksin’s nephew, Higher Education, Science, Research & Innovation Minister Yodchanan Wongsawat, might be named as a new prime minister, with the conditional endorsement of the People’s Party. This move would aim to prevent a situation similar to last year's Bhumjaithai-led minority government, even if reformist factions were to join a Pheu Thai-steered government. The possibility of Pheu Thai departing the Bhumjaithai-led coalition and reviving a Pheu Thai-led coalition is considered an "utterly slim chance." According to unidentified partisan sources, Thaksin would have too much at risk, making such a move not worthwhile or "fairly interesting." Thaksin is currently burdened with significant legal battles. These include a lese majeste lawsuit being prosecuted in the Appellate Court by the Office of the Attorney-General, a case that was initially waived in his favor by the Criminal Court. He also faces the need to settle approximately 17 billion baht in overdue personal income tax and to find ways to bring his self-exiled sister, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, back home. Thaksin would undoubtedly be concerned about the potential scenarios where he could lose the prolonged lese majeste case in the Appellate Court and ultimately the Supreme Court, face difficulties paying billions of baht in overdue taxes, and struggle to find legal avenues to bring his sister home if his faction were no longer part of the Bhumjaithai-led government. Furthermore, Thammanat Prompao is known within Bhumjaithai ranks to have been ultimately denied by Newin Chidchob. This rendered the Klatham leader’s attempts to join the Bhumjaithai government bandwagon a complete fiasco. The prime minister, often viewed as a nominal leader, wields far less power and decisiveness than the de facto boss of the largest ruling camp. Most importantly, despite alleged electoral fraud and questions about their competency, Newin’s camp, and Anutin in particular, are still overwhelmingly preferred by the "super-elite, yet-unlawful powers-that-be" to run the country. This preference persists despite far-fetched speculation that Thaksin could pull Pheu Thai out of the coalition as soon as the censure debate against the current government concludes later this year. Such a move would force Anutin to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a general election, potentially capping his administration at less than a year. Remarkably, Newin’s camp is likely to secure far fewer Member of Parliament seats in the next election compared to the 192 seats won previously, though they are still expected to form the core of a future coalition, sources said. Information source: Thai Newsroom