Climate Crisis Threatens to Slash Indonesian Arabica Coffee Production by 80%

For many, the day doesn't truly begin without a cup of coffee. Behind its comforting aroma lies the work of millions of farmers who toil from dawn, tending to plants that require a delicate balance of temperature, rainfall, and humidity. However, this equilibrium is now being disrupted. The climate crisis is slowly reshaping the future of coffee, not just in Indonesia but across coffee-producing nations worldwide. Various studies estimate that within the next 25 years, approximately 80% of arabica coffee production could be affected by climate change. The productivity of both arabica and robusta coffee is projected to decline by up to 50% due to increasingly limited suitable land for cultivation. Some coffee species are even feared to be unable to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. The impacts are already being felt on the ground. In Enrekang Regency, South Sulawesi, coffee production has shown a downward trend of up to 8.8% between 2021 and 2023. Ironically, this decline occurred even as the plantation area increased by around 6.7%. This means that expanding land does not automatically lead to more harvest if climatic conditions are no longer supportive. During the same period, rainfall in the region also decreased drastically. Coffee is known to be highly dependent on environmental conditions. Small changes in temperature, humidity, or groundwater availability can affect flowering and fruit development. Extreme weather also creates new problems, such as increased pest and disease attacks on plants. Several studies indicate that these conditions are making more areas unsuitable for optimal coffee production. In Jambi, farmers face even more complex challenges. Besides unpredictable weather, Liberica coffee farmers are also dealing with seawater intrusion. This article was originally published on Mongabay