ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet in Manila Amid US-Iran Tensions and South China Sea Disputes

ASEAN Foreign Ministers and their major partners will convene in Manila this week, facing a backdrop of heightened instability beyond the region due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. This development injects further uncertainty into a region already grappling with maritime security concerns with China and a faltering regional effort to resolve Myanmar's civil war. Foreign ministers from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, alongside key partners including the US, China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, are set to gather. According to a spokesperson for the Philippines, the host nation, the US-Iran conflict is expected to be a prominent topic of discussion. Concerns are high regarding its potential impact on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, inflation, and global economic growth. However, significant challenges also persist within Southeast Asia. Myanmar's civil war, which has claimed an estimated 100,000 lives since the military coup in 2021, remains a critical issue. ASEAN's peace initiative for the country has yet to gain substantial traction five years after its launch. ASEAN foreign ministers are scheduled to hold an informal consultation on Myanmar on July 22. Furthermore, tensions in the South China Sea, where ASEAN and China are working towards concluding a Code of Conduct (COC), are also anticipated to be a key point of discussion. The sidelines of the meetings could potentially see a meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Chinese Foreign Minister. The region's ability to demonstrate coordinated efforts towards stabilizing regional order amidst these multifaceted challenges will be closely watched.