Visayas Power Woes Need More Than Transmission Upgrades

MANILA, Philippines — Transmission upgrades alone will not end the recurring power shortages in the Visayas, as enough dependable generation capacity is also needed to keep up with rising electricity demand. This was what the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) clarified amid claims that power woes in Cebu and across the Visayas stemmed from transmission constraints. “Transmission cannot create supply,” NGCP spokesperson Cynthia Alabanza said, stressing that building more interconnection capacity will not, on its own, address the broader resource adequacy problem. Cebu, in particular, is already facing substantial and growing electricity demand as industrial, commercial and residential developments continue to expand, Alabanza said. “That growth must be matched not only by nameplate generating capacity but by dependable capacity that is actually available when the system needs it, with sufficient redundancy to withstand scheduled maintenance, forced outages and fluctuations in variable renewable generation,” she said. The Visayas grid relies on power imports from Luzon and Mindanao, leaving the region vulnerable when either grid has limited electricity to export. Since May, rotating brownouts have threatened the Visayas amid high electricity demand and the simultaneous shutdown of several large coal-fired power plants. Most recently, the NGCP issued a red alert in the region from 5 to 6 p.m. yesterday, as nearly 800 megawatts of capacity were unavailable to the grid. A yellow alert was also in effect from 4 to 5 p.m. and again from 6 to 8 p.m. This brought the number of red alerts in the Visayas to 41 and yellow alerts to 105 since the start of the year, NGCP data showed. Notably, the region has been under red alert every day this month except Sept. 6. A yellow alert is hoisted when power reserves fall to low levels, while a red alert is declared when available electricity supply is no longer sufficient to meet demand. For Alabanza, however, the persistent power crunch cannot be solved by simply addinzzg more power plants or building additional transmission lines. “Both may be necessary, but the question is what generation, where; what transmission, where; how much; and by when,” she emphasized. “That requires common assumptions on demand growth, generation entry and retirement, dependable capacity, reserve requirements, geographic concentration of generation, inter-island power flows and the role that each interconnection is expected to play.” The Visayas’ current power situation, Alabanza said, has highlighted a growing disconnect in the way power planning is carried out in the Philippines. As such, the NGCP is calling for a whole-of-industry approach to energy planning, where generation, transmission and distribution are planned in tandem within the investment and regulatory framework set by the government. “Government policy must provide a sufficiently clear long-term direction so that these investments are not being made using conflicting assumptions,” Alabanza said. As the country’s sole transmission operator, the NGCP builds, operates and maintains the state-owned power grid. It is responsible for safely delivering electricity from power plants to distribution utilities.