Vietnam's Agriculture Faces 'Bumper Crop, Low Price' Cycle

In recent months, along national and provincial roads in the Mekong Delta, it has been common to see stalls selling durian, calamansi, jackfruit, and eels with signs advertising unbelievably low prices. This reflects the vicious cycle of 'bumper crops leading to low prices,' unstable market access, and farmers bearing the brunt of the risks first. A few years ago, the mud-free eel farming model thrived in Can Tho, Vinh Long, An Giang, and Ca Ma u, thanks to high selling prices and attractive profits. Many households boldly invested in expanding their scale, viewing it as a new path to prosperity. However, rapid development led to supply far exceeding demand. Currently, commercial eels are sold at only 30,000-35,000 VND/kg, significantly lower than the production cost of around 50,000 VND/kg. For every ton of eels sold, farmers face losses of tens of millions of VND. Consequently, many are forced to sell their products by the roadside in a form of 'self-rescue' to mitigate losses. Similarly, calamansi was once a crop that brought substantial income to farmers in Vinh Long, with prices fluctuating between 20,000-30,000 VND/kg, leading to continuous expansion of planting areas. However, just a few years later, as production surged, calamansi prices plummeted to 1,000-2,000 VND/kg, leaving many growers in debt as they could not recover their capital. Durian is also facing a similar threat. At one point, durian prices reached 180,000 VND/kg, considered the 'king of fruits,' prompting many farmers to plant it en masse. However, when prices fell sharply, many growers had to bear hundreds of millions of VND in losses. The reasons for falling agricultural product prices are not only market fluctuations but also stem from a production mindset that chases immediate profits. As soon as a crop or livestock is priced high, its cultivation area and output are immediately expanded, regardless of professional recommendations and actual market demand. The consequence is oversupply, a sharp price drop, and farmers falling back into the 'plant then cut, raise then abandon' cycle. Furthermore, the link between producers, businesses, cooperatives, and consumption markets remains loose. Many agricultural products are mainly consumed fresh, while deep processing capacity is limited. When exports face obstacles or domestic consumption slows, the volume of agricultural products quickly becomes congested, forcing people to sell at a discount to recoup some costs. To end the surplus of agricultural products, the first step is to shift from a 'trend-following' production mindset to market-oriented production. Regional raw material planning for key crops and livestock needs to be strictly implemented, aligned with domestic and export consumption needs, and avoiding expansion beyond planned areas. Alongside this, digital transformation in agriculture needs to be accelerated. A data system on supply-demand, prices, market forecasts, weather, and diseases needs to be regularly updated to help farmers access timely information before deciding on production investments. Simultaneously, localities need to focus on strongly developing agricultural product processing industries. For high-volume items like calamansi, durian, dragon fruit, jackfruit, sweet potatoes, or eels, investing in processing plants will contribute to extending shelf life, diversifying products, and expanding export markets. More importantly, coordinated efforts from management agencies, businesses, cooperatives, and producers themselves are crucial. Only by building an agricultural sector with strong linkages and modern processing can the 'bumper crop, low price' vicious cycle be thoroughly resolved, allowing farmers to produce with peace of mind and prosper from agriculture. By Hoang Trung