Pakistan Cracks Down on Protesters in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir, Dozens Dead and Injured

Pakistani security forces opened fire on protesters in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir (PaJK) on July 27, resulting in at least 21 deaths and dozens of injuries, according to reports. The protesters, led by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), a grassroots grouping of traders, students, and civil society organizations, had gathered at Rawalakot and began marching toward Muzaffarabad, PaJK’s capital, when the crackdown began. Casualty figures are contested and hard to confirm as the Pakistan government has imposed a blanket shutdown on communications across PaJK. When the Pakistani government proscribed JAAC under anti-terrorism legislation on June 5, PaJK erupted in protest. An estimated 40 people, including six police and paramilitary personnel, are reported to have been killed between June 5 and July 24. Formed in 2023, JAAC initially mobilized on the issue of rising wheat and electricity prices. Since last year, its demands have taken on a decidedly political hue, with demonstrations now focusing on governance, electoral reforms, and constitutional issues. Pakistan has long projected PaJK as a self-governing territory; indeed, the official name of PaJK is Azad (or free) Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and its chief executive goes by the title of prime minister. However, the reality is that substantive powers and decision-making authority rest with Islamabad. AJK’s independence or even autonomy is a “myth.” JAAC appears to be seeking to wrest back that authority by challenging political structures. Foremost among its demands is the abolition of “refugee seats” in the PaJK legislative assembly, which are reserved for descendants of those who migrated from Indian Kashmir after 1947, most of whom do not actually live in PaJK. Of the PaJK legislature’s 53 seats, 12 are reserved for refugees, eight for women, ulema (Islamic scholars) and technocrats, leaving 33 for direct election. While the refugee seats can be defended on the grounds that they provide representation for the displaced, their structure is undemocratic. As political analyst Luv Puri told me in a recent interview, “refugee constituencies [wield] greater electoral influence per voter” than non-refugee constituencies in PaJK. Moreover, in effect the refugee seats have served to enhance Islamabad’s capacity to significantly influence government formation and manipulate decisions in the PaJK assembly. Indeed, every Pakistani political party has manipulated the refugee seats to form the PaJK government. In the 2021 election, just two PaJK parties won a seat each. The current surge in unrest in PaJK comes amid elections to its legislative assembly, which began on July 27 and will end on August 10. The protests in PaJK have grown in magnitude over the past two months and their geographic spread has expanded as well. Rawalakot was the epicenter of the protests until last week, but unrest has now spilled over to Muzaffarabad, Mirpur and other districts. The lethality of the Pakistani government’s response to the protests has grown too. The mounting casualties could transform the mass protests into a political movement. Of course, the Pakistani government can be expected to unleash the full force of their iron fist before the movement morphs into something bigger. Brute force has always been the response of Pakistan’s establishment to protests and resistance. Moreover, this crisis is unfolding in PaJK. Pakistani leaders often refer to Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular vein, which cannot be severed from Pakistan. Indeed, Kashmir is the one issue on which Pakistanis stand united. Having spent billions of dollars and much diplomatic capital on failing to wrest away control over Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir (IaJK), Islamabad cannot afford to allow PaJK to slip out of its control, however minimally, under any circumstances. “While Islamabad did negotiate with the JAAC, its commitment to finding a political solution was less than half-hearted,” a Mirpuri based in the United Kingdom told The Diplomat on condition of anonymity. Even as it engaged in talks, it was “increasing deployment of paramilitary personnel in PaJK to crush what is a political movement.” Its designation of the PaJK as terrorist, and “the arrest of hundreds of political activists in midnight raids, are aimed at provoking the local residents to turn to violence.” That would in turn serve to justify Islamabad’s use of extreme force against the people of PaJK, she said. Amid its deadly crackdown on protesters last week, Pakistani Defense Minister Khwaja Asif said: “I put the protesters of Azad Kashmir in the same category as India and consider them also as enemies like India.” His comment does not bode well for the people of PaJK. By portraying the protesters as “enemies,” Asif is preparing to deploy the iron fist on PaJK. At a time when Pakistan is grappling with economic crises, and powerful armed insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad could use the crisis in PaJK to unite a divided Pakistan.