Arakan Army (AA) becomes the most powerful armed group

Photo – In just 17 years since its establishment, the AA has achieved what other ethnic armed organizations have struggled to achieve for decades. Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan The Arakan Army (AA) has become Myanmar's most influential armed group, controlling most of the townships in Rakhine State and expanding its territory to establish a de facto buffer zone. The AA has successfully established a de facto governance system through its legal and social organizations, while simultaneously leveraging strategic alliances to train and support a network of armed insurgent groups nationwide. By controlling key foreign infrastructure projects, it has secured a degree of geopolitical leverage over the People's Republic of China (PRC) and India, allowing the AA to operate with greater autonomy than other armed groups. On October 27, 2023, the Arakan Army (AA), a Buddhist nationalist armed group, launched Operation 1027 in conjunction with its two main allies: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). This joint offensive began in northern Shan State near the border with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and fundamentally altered the balance of power in Myanmar's internal conflict following the coup. The offensive successfully captured vast territories and crucial trade routes. Since then, the AA has emerged as the most powerful and influential force in Myanmar's decades-long internal conflict. Established on April 10, 2009, and redesignated as terrorists by the then-ruling Myanmar military junta in September 2024, these Rakhine armed insurgents have effectively established their own proto-state by driving out junta forces from the western part of the country. The AA has gained full control over 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, as well as one township in Chin State. The AA also effectively controls the entire 271 kilometers (approximately 168 miles) of Myanmar's international border with Bangladesh, and most of the infrastructure connectivity projects of China and India within Rakhine State. The AA is currently composed of 40,000 troops, making it the largest active non-state armed group in South and Southeast Asia. Aspiring to achieve the 'Rakhine Dream' through the 'Rakhita Path,' the AA has become a significant threat to Min Aung Hlaing and his military-appointed administration. The AA's success serves as a model for other armed groups and anti-junta activists. Factors Behind AA's Effectiveness Several political, military, and strategic factors distinguish the AA from other non-state armed groups operating in Myanmar's decades-long armed conflict. Successful Operations The AA is on the verge of becoming the first armed group to gain full control over an entire ethnic state in Myanmar. The organization aims to drive out the Myanmar military from the entire Rakhine State, a goal that could potentially be achieved by the end of 2027. The AA is also expanding its territorial ambitions beyond Rakhine State. For instance, in January 2024, it captured the strategic township of Paletwa in Chin State, bordering India. Since January 2025, it has continued large-scale armed operations into the Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions, which are adjacent to Rakhine State and considered heartlands of the Bamar (original usage). Furthermore, in February, the AA expanded into Sagaing Region, seizing at least four junta camps in the Kantbalu district. Through these offensives, the AA aims to create a de facto buffer zone between Rakhine and non-Rakhine areas and gain access to arms manufacturing facilities, known locally as 'Kapasa.' De Facto Insurgent Governance The AA first established a foothold in Rakhine State by building a base in the remote township of Paletwa in 2010, gradually moving south. Between 2015 and 2020, the AA concentrated its anti-junta armed struggle in the rural areas of northern Rakhine, where it successfully established a governance system by setting up its own legal, political, and social organizations. Following Operation 1027, the AA has focused on and successfully begun capturing urban centers in key townships of Rakhine State, including Mrauk U, Maungdaw, Ann, and Gwa. The AA is also concentrating on improving the efficiency of its courts, making education and healthcare accessible, and strengthening the effectiveness of law enforcement. These efforts have led to increased public support and contributed to territorial consolidation. The AA has also promoted social cohesion among minority communities through initiatives such as reopening the Jamae Mosque in Maungdaw, organizing the 'Maharamaya Harinama Rama' festival for Hindus, and conducting community outreach activities with Muslims. Effective Alliance Network The AA has further enhanced its capabilities by forming strategic alliances with various armed groups within Myanmar. By collaborating with established ethnic armed organizations such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the AA has gained valuable battlefield experience, continuous arms supply, and operational insights, developing effective tactics.