
What is 'Operation Romanov,' referred to by Sara Duterte's defense team?
Vice President Sara Duterte's legal team cited 'Operation Romanov,' a supposed plot to assassinate the VP and her family, as justification for her remarks about arranging assassinations. However, authorities stated their investigation into the alleged plot was hindered by the VP's non-cooperation.
Vice President Sara Duterte's lawyers defended her declaration of having arranged for the assassination of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos, Jr., First Lady Liza Marcos, and then-Speaker Martin Romualdez, by referring to "Operation Romanov," a supposed plot to kill the Vice President and her family. "Romanov" is likely a reference to the mass murder of Russia's last ruling family—Tsar Nicholas II Romanov, his wife Alexandra, and their five children—in July 1918 by the Bolshevik revolutionaries. At the impeachment trial against Duterte, defense lawyer Mark Vinluan insisted Operation Romanov is real, and that it justified the Vice President’s threats. “The truth of the matter is this: She and her family were threatened and while her response was unconventional, it was justified. What triggered her response was a question about Operation Romanov, which is the plot to eliminate VP Sara and her entire family,” he told the Senate impeachment court. Vinluan said Oplan Romanov was mentioned by a certain Princess Maui in the November 2024 press conference during which Duterte announced that she had spoken to someone about assassinating Marcos. “Huwag kang mag-alala, Ma'am sa security ko, kasi may kinausap na ako na tao. Sabi ko sa kanya, kapag pinatay ako, patayin mo si BBM, si Liza Araneta, at si Martin Romualdez,” Duterte said at the time. (Don't worry about my security because I have already spoken to someone. I told that person that if I am killed, kill BBM, Liza Araneta, and Martin Romualdez.) "No joke, no joke. Nagbilin na ako, Ma'am. 'Pag mamatay ako, sabi ko, huwag ka tumigil ha, hanggang hindi mo mapatay sila. And then he said yes,” she added. (No joke. I already gave instructions that if I die, don't stop until you have killed them.) At the trial, Vinluan said that Duterte's words were a response to the threat. “When VP Sara uttered those words, she was not responding as Sara Duterte the Vice President, but Sara Duterte the wife, mother, daughter, and sister who only sought to protect her own and her family members' lives. Operation Romanov is in place and the threat against their lives is real,” he said. Vinluan also said that the Vice President also became a target of unauthorized intelligence and surveillance operations by government operatives “that expose her family to high-level risks and security threats, thereby causing intense trauma and uncontrollable fear.” “Her homes in Davao and Manila were profiled and this is proven by classified casing reports. Her trusted security personnel were removed. Her schedule of official functions like the one in Naga was leaked by intelligence agents and her security was heavily compromised. In sum, the prosecution was right in using the term culmination,” Vinluan said. “But the prosecution's interpretation is wrong. Rather, when VP Sara left the administration, she suffered various forms of threats and harassment for many months from the powers that be and the culmination was her statement on that fateful early morning in November 2024. She didn't commit an impeachable offense. She drew the line in the sand and said, enough is enough,” Vinluan added. When Senator-judge Alan Cayetano asked prosecution witness NBI Senior Agent Mark Calilung if the NBI investigated Oplan Romanov. Calilung replied that the NBI tried but that the Vice President and Princess Maui did not show up when NBI asked them to come to the agency to discuss the details of the supposed plot. "We tried to investigate the supposed threats against them, Your Honor. It was included in our letter to the Vice President. That is why we invited her to our office so we could investigate the alleged threats to her life," Calilung said. "Yes, we invited the Vice President and Princess Maui to come to the NBI. They did not appear, Your Honor," he added. — BM, GMA News
多角的分析
「ロマノフ作戦」を巡る副大統領側の主張は、直接的な経済的影響は現時点では限定的である。しかし、政治的混乱や権力闘争の激化は、国内外からの投資家心理を悪化させ、フィリピン経済への信頼を損なうリスクを孕む。特に、政権中枢の不安定化は、経済政策の継続性や実行能力への疑念を生み、経済成長やインフラ開発といった長期的な経済目標の達成を阻む可能性がある。過去にも、政治的緊張が高まった際には、フィリピン・ペソの変動や証券市場の低迷が見られた事例があり、今回も同様の懸念が拭えない。
投資家としては、政治的リスクの増大は極めて懸念材料である。副大統領と現政権との間の緊張関係が深まれば、政策の一貫性が失われ、ビジネス環境の予測可能性が低下する。特に、外国直接投資(FDI)は、安定した政治情勢と明確な法制度を前提とするため、このような不確実性は投資判断を慎重にさせる。過去のフィリピンにおける政治的危機時には、資本逃避や新規投資の凍結が見られたことから、今回の事態が長期化・深刻化すれば、同様の状況に陥るリスクがある。
副大統領が「家族を守るため」と主張する発言の背景には、フィリピン社会における家族の絆の強さが根底にある。しかし、公の場で暗殺計画を示唆するような発言は、社会的な不安を煽り、国民の間に不信感を生む可能性がある。特に、政権中枢の人間関係の悪化は、一般市民の日常生活における治安への懸念や、政府機関への信頼感にも影響を与えかねない。また、このような政治的対立が、SNSなどを通じて過度に拡散されると、社会の分断を深める一因となることも懸念される。
一般市民、特に副大統領の支持者にとっては、彼女とその家族が脅威にさらされているという主張は、強い共感を呼ぶ可能性がある。しかし、大統領や他の政府高官への暗殺を示唆するような発言は、たとえ自己防衛の意図があったとしても、社会全体の安全や秩序に対する懸念を生じさせる。マニラ首都圏の住民からは、「政治家同士の争いは我々には関係ないが、治安が悪くなるのは困る」「SNSで過激な発言を見ると不安になる」といった声も聞かれる。政府機関への信頼が揺らぐことは、国民生活に直接的な影響を与えかねない。
背景・歴史的文脈
フィリピンでは、副大統領と大統領は別々に選出されるため、しばしば両者の政治的立場や政策が異なる場合がある。サラ・ドゥテルテ副大統領は、前大統領ロドリゴ・ドゥテルテ氏の娘であり、独自の支持基盤を持つ。2024年11月の発言は、彼女が政権から離れる意向を示唆するものであり、その背景には、マルコス政権との政策や権力分配における軋轢があったと推測される。今回弁護団が持ち出した「ロマノフ作戦」は、こうした政権中枢の緊張関係の中で、副大統領側が自己の安全保障と政治的立場を守るために提示した主張であると考えられる。NBIの調査協力拒否は、この緊張関係をさらに浮き彫りにしている。
原文ソース
GMA News Philippines